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Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system

机译：考虑到多水库系统定量洪水风险分析中的不同流溢出预测视野

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摘要

The flood risk analysis of a multi-reservoir system is based on the forecasted streamflow, whose time length is the forecast horizon (FH). FHs are generally different for each reservoir while the operation horizon (OH) is the same in a mull-reservoir system. To bridge the gap between the FHs and the OH of the mull-reservoir system, this study aims to develop a two-stage flood risk analysis method, specifically considering different FHs of each reservoir. In the first stage (the time period within the FHs), multinormal distribution of mull-reservoir storage was deduced by using the multivariate autoregressive model. In the second stage (the time period between the FHs and the OH), flood risk was calculated by using the reservoir routing for design flood hydrographs. The total flood risk within the OH incorporated the risks in the first and second stages. Finally, the joint effective FHs corresponding to the minimum total flood risk could be identified by numerical experiments. The results for the case study indicate that (1) the proposed two-stage flood risk analysis utilizes different FHs in the mull-reservoir system and bridge the gap between the FHs and the OH; (2) the joint effective FHs are not constants and change with inflow conditions.
机译：多储层系统的洪水风险分析基于预测的流流，其时间长度是预测地平线（FH）。在Mull-储层系统中操作地平线（OH）相同，因此FHS通常不同于每个储存器。为了弥合Mull-储层系统的FHS与OH之间的差距，本研究旨在开发一种两级洪水风险分析方法，具体考虑每个水库的不同FHS。在第一阶段（FHS内的时间段）中，通过使用多变量自回归模型推断出Mull-储层存储的多级分布。在第二阶段（FHS与OH之间的时间段），通过使用设计泛滥文物的储层路由来计算洪水风险。 OH内的洪水风险总体在第一和第二阶段中的风险纳入了风险。最后，通过数值实验可以鉴定对应于最小洪水风险的关节有效FHS。案例研究的结果表明（1）所提出的两级洪水风险分析利用了Mull-储层系统中的不同FHS，并弥合了FHS和OH之间的差距; （2）联合有效的FHS不是常数和流入条件的变化。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2020年第12期|107128.1-107128.15|共15页
  • 作者

    Gong Yu; Liu Pan; Zhang Jun; Liu Dedi; Zhang Xiaoqi; Zhang Xiaojing;

  • 作者单位

    Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China|Hubei Prov Collaborat Innovat Ctr Water Resources Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China;

    Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China|Hubei Prov Collaborat Innovat Ctr Water Resources Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China;

    Changjiang Water Resources Commiss Bur Hydrol Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China;

    Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China|Hubei Prov Collaborat Innovat Ctr Water Resources Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China;

    Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China|Hubei Prov Collaborat Innovat Ctr Water Resources Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China;

    Wuhan Univ State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China|Hubei Prov Collaborat Innovat Ctr Water Resources Wuhan 430072 Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Multi-reservoir system; Flood risk; Different forecast horizons; Reservoir operation; Multinormal distribution;

    机译：多水库系统;洪水风险;不同的预测视野;水库操作;多级分布;

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