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Definitions and Reliability Evaluation of Multi-state Systems Considering State Transition Process and its Application for Gas Systems

机译：考虑状态转换过程的多状态系统的定义和可靠性评估及其对天然气系统的应用

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摘要

Multi-state system (MSS) models have been widely used to represent the reliability of engineering systems that have a finite number of performance levels. The previous studies related to the reliability evaluation of the MSSs generally follow the assumption that the transition among different performance states is instantaneous with no time delay. However, there exist several engineering systems that transit slowly between different states, such as gas supply systems and heating distribution systems. When evaluating the operating reliability of such an engineering system, the neglect of the non-instant state transition process may lead to inaccurate or insufficient evaluation results. To fill the research gap, the traditional MSS model is extended to handle the situation where the non-instant state transition features should be considered. The concepts and features of multi-state systems considering state transition process (MSS-STP) are innovatively proposed. Considering the non-instant state transition process, the traditional reliability evaluation framework for the MSSs is extended to evaluate the operating reliability of MSS-STP. The procedure of transition curve discretization is innovatively proposed to divide the dynamic transition process into a series of discrete states. The developed general MSS-TSP model is applied to the natural gas system (NGS) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed reliability evaluation framework. The proposed technique can provide a useful tool for system operators to accurately evaluate the operating reliability of MSS-STP
机译：多状态系统（MSS）模型已被广泛用于表示具有有限数量的性能水平的工程系统的可靠性。与MSS的可靠性评估有关的先前研究通常遵循不同性能状态之间的转换的假设，其瞬时没有时间延迟。然而，存在几种在不同状态之间慢慢传输的工程系统，例如供气系统和加热分配系统。当评估这种工程系统的操作可靠性时，忽略非即时状态转换过程可能导致不准确或不足的评估结果。为了填补研究差距，传统的MSS模型扩展以处理应考虑非即时状态转换功能的情况。考虑状态转换过程（MSS-STP）的多状态系统的概念和特征是创新的提出。考虑到非即时状态转换过程，扩展了MSSS的传统可靠性评估框架以评估MSS-STP的操作可靠性。转换曲线离散化的过程创新地提出将动态转换过程划分为一系列离散状态。开发的通用MSS-TSP模型应用于天然气系统（NGS），以证明所提出的可靠性评估框架的有效性。该提出的技术可以为系统运营商提供有用的工具，以准确评估MSS-STP的操作可靠性

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