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An integrated gas supply reliability evaluation method of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side analysis

机译：基于需求侧分析的大规模复杂天然气管网集成气体供应可靠性评价方法

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摘要

The fluctuation characteristics of the gas demand and the effect of the user importance are usually ignored in previous gas supply reliability research. With the intent of overcoming these deficiencies, an integrated method based on the demand-side analysis is proposed in this study to assess the gas supply reliability of the large-scale and complex natural gas pipeline network. The method is composed of the establishment of the indicator system, the demand-side analysis, the estimation of the unit failure probability, and the calculation of the gas supply. Among them, the demand-side analysis focuses on the market demand forecasting and user importance research. Moreover, the coupling effect of the user importance, the hydraulic and pressure constraints, and the unit failure on the gas supply calculation is considered. Furthermore, a real natural gas pipeline network located in China is applied to confirm the feasibility of the method. According to the evaluation results of the gas supply reliability, the weakest nodes and key links of the natural gas pipeline network are identified, and the suggestions to improve the gas supply reliability are proposed as well. At last, the significance of the demand side in the gas supply reliability is elaborated and validated.
机译：在以前的气体供应可靠性研究中通常忽略气体需求的波动特性和用户重要性的影响。随着克服这些缺陷的意图，在本研究中提出了一种基于需求侧分析的综合方法，以评估大规模和复杂的天然气管道网络的气体供应可靠性。该方法由建立指示系统，需求侧分析，估计单位故障概率，以及气体供应的计算。其中，需求侧分析侧重于市场需求预测和用户重要性研究。此外，考虑了用户重要性，液压和压力约束的耦合效果，以及气体供应计算上的单元故障。此外，应用于中国的真正天然气管道网络以确认该方法的可行性。根据燃气供应可靠性的评估结果，鉴定了天然气管道网络的最弱节点和键链节，并提出了提高气体供应可靠性的建议。最后，详细说明并验证了需求方面的需求方面的重要性。

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  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2021年第8期|107651.1-107651.18|共18页
  • 作者

    Yu Weichao; Huang Weihe; Wen Yunhao; Li Yichen; Liu Hongfei; Wen Kai; Gong Jing; Lu Yanan;

  • 作者单位

    China Univ Petr Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol MOE Key Lab Petr Engn Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety Beijing 102249 Peoples R China|China Petr Planning & Engn Inst Beijing 10083 Peoples R China;

    PetroChina Co Ltd China Natl Petr Corp Beijing 100007 Peoples R China;

    China Petr Planning & Engn Inst Beijing 10083 Peoples R China;

    China Univ Petr Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol MOE Key Lab Petr Engn Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety Beijing 102249 Peoples R China;

    China Natl Aviat Fuel Int Holdings Ltd Beijing 100029 Peoples R China;

    China Univ Petr Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol MOE Key Lab Petr Engn Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety Beijing 102249 Peoples R China;

    China Univ Petr Beijing Key Lab Urban Oil & Gas Distribut Technol MOE Key Lab Petr Engn Natl Engn Lab Pipeline Safety Beijing 102249 Peoples R China;

    China Natl Petr Corp East Branch Nat Gas Mkt Co Shanghai 200120 Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Natural gas pipeline network; Gas supply reliability; Demand-side analysis; User importance; Gas flow allocation method;

    机译：天然气管网;燃气供应可靠性;需求侧分析;用户重要性;气体流分配方法;

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