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Research on a seismic connectivity reliability model of power systems based on the quasi-Monte Carlo method

机译:基于准蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统地震连接可靠性模型研究

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摘要

To improve the speed of the error convergence of the Monte Carlo method in the seismic connectivity reliability assessment of power systems, the quasi-Monte Carlo method sampled by a low-discrepancy sequence is applied in the reliability evaluation. In addition, a triangle algorithm that can reduce the amount of computation in solving connectivity matrix is proposed to establish a seismic connectivity reliability calculation model with low-discrepancy sequence sampling. The ground motion attenuation model and the magnification effect of site soil were used to perform a seismic hazard analysis of the demonstration area, and the peak ground acceleration and the spatial distribution characteristics of the power system were obtained. Based on the results of the fragility analysis of a 110 kV substation and a 330 kV substation in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, the standard Monte Carlo simulation and the Sobol sequence quasi-Monte Carlo simulation are carried out. The results show that with the same sampling number, the triangle algorithm has higher operational efficiency. Combining the triangle algorithm with the quasi-Monte Carlo method improves not only the accuracy but also the calculation speed.
机译:为了提高电力系统地震连接可靠性评估中蒙特卡罗方法的误差收敛速度,通过低差异序列采样的准蒙特卡罗方法应用于可靠性评估。另外,提出了一种可以减少求解矩阵中的计算量的三角算法,以建立具有低差异序列采样的地震连接可靠性计算模型。地面运动衰减模型和位点土壤的放大效果用于对演示区域进行地震危害分析,获得功率系统的峰接地加速度和空间分布特性。基于110 kV变电站的脆弱性分析的结果和西安,陕西省西安的330千伏变电站,进行了标准的蒙特卡罗模拟和软骨序列准蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明,采用相同的采样数,三角形算法具有更高的运行效率。将三角形算法与准蒙特卡罗方法相结合,不仅可以提高准确性,也可以提高计算速度。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2021年第11期|107888.1-107888.19|共19页
  • 作者单位

    Xian Univ Architecture & Technol Xian 710055 Peoples R China|Minist Educ XAUAT Key Lab Struct Engn & Earthquake Resistance Xian 710055 Peoples R China;

    Xian Univ Architecture & Technol Xian 710055 Peoples R China|Minist Educ XAUAT Key Lab Struct Engn & Earthquake Resistance Xian 710055 Peoples R China;

    Xian Univ Architecture & Technol Xian 710055 Peoples R China|Minist Educ XAUAT Key Lab Struct Engn & Earthquake Resistance Xian 710055 Peoples R China;

    Xian Univ Architecture & Technol Xian 710055 Peoples R China|Minist Educ XAUAT Key Lab Struct Engn & Earthquake Resistance Xian 710055 Peoples R China;

    Xian Univ Architecture & Technol Architectural Design & Res Inst Xian 710055 Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Power system; Reliability analysis; Quasi-Monte Carlo; Sobol sequence; Triangle algorithm;

    机译:电力系统;可靠性分析;准蒙特卡罗;索尔序列;三角算法;

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