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Nonlinear step-stress accelerated degradation modelling considering three sources of variability

机译：考虑三个可变性源的非线性阶梯应力加速退化模型

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摘要

In the absence of enough run-to-failure data, step-stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) is often an attractive alternative way to evaluate the reliability of a product, with the advantage of requiring small sample size and short test time. However, the development of a statistical SSADT model for reliability assessment should take into account different sources of variability in the degradation process that generate uncertainty: 1) temporal variability determining the inherent variability of degradation process over time; 2) unit-to-unit variability in three aspects: degradation rates, initial degradation values, time-points of elevating stress levels; and 3) measurement errors in both covariates and degradation performance. As a contribution towards this aim, a new nonlinear Wiener-process-based SSADT model considering simultaneously nonlinearity and three sources of variability is proposed. Using the proposed SSADT model, the lifetime law of the tested product under normal conditions is derived based on the concept of first hitting time (FHT) of a predetermined failure threshold. Following an approach based on genetic algorithms (GA), a modified simulation and extrapolation method, called GA-SIMEX, is also developed for the model parameter estimation. Finally, a simulation study of fatigue crack length growth is presented to illustrate the implementation of the proposed SSADT model. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：在没有足够的运行失败数据的情况下，阶跃压力加速降解测试（SSADT）通常是评估产品可靠性的一种有吸引力的替代方法，其优点是需要较小的样本量和较短的测试时间。但是，开发用于可靠性评估的统计SSADT模型时，应考虑到降解过程中会产生不确定性的各种可变性来源：1）时间可变性，确定降解过程随时间的内在可变性； 2）单元间的变化在三个方面：退化率，初始退化值，应力水平升高的时间点； 3）协变量和降级性能的测量误差。为了实现这一目标，提出了同时考虑非线性和三个可变性来源的，基于维纳过程的非线性SSADT模型。使用建议的SSADT模型，基于预定故障阈值的首次击中时间（FHT）的概念，得出了正常条件下被测产品的寿命规律。遵循基于遗传算法（GA）的方法，还开发了一种改进的仿真和外推方法，称为GA-SIMEX，用于模型参数估计。最后，进行了疲劳裂纹长度增长的仿真研究，以说明所提出的SSADT模型的实现。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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