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Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data

机译：从全范围模拟器数据估算PSF和HEP之间的定量关系

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摘要

For probabilistically assessing the risks of nuclear power plants, human reliability analyses (HRAs) have been conducted to systematically predict human error probabilities (HEPs) of significant tasks that might affect system safety. To improve quality in the HRA results, solid empirical evidence for quantitative relations between performance shaping factors (PSFs) and HEPs is required. For generating the empirical evidence, the HRA data including human reliability data and contextual data should be collected and the quantitative relations between PSFs and HEPs should be properly estimated. In this study, in order to validate the statistical estimation approach for the relation between PSFs and HEPs, the simulation records of operator training programs that were performed via full-scope simulators were collected and analyzed by the HuREX (Human Reliability data EXtraction) framework. The simulator data including more than 10,000 data points are then statistically analyzed by a logistic regression analysis method. From the statistical process, the significant variables affecting human reliability are deduced, and the PSF multipliers for each significant variable are estimated. The potentials and challenges of the statistical approach are discussed from the obtained results. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：为了从概率上评估核电厂的风险，已经进行了人员可靠性分析（HRA），以系统地预测可能影响系统安全的重要任务的人为错误概率（HEP）。为了提高HRA结果的质量，需要有实证证据来证明绩效塑造因素（PSF）和HEP之间的定量关系。为了产生经验证据，应收集包括人类可靠性数据和上下文数据在内的HRA数据，并适当估计PSF和HEP之间的定量关系。在这项研究中，为了验证统计估计方法对PSF和HEP之间的关系的影响，通过HuREX（人类可靠性数据提取）框架收集并分析了通过全范围模拟器执行的操作员培训计划的模拟记录。然后通过逻辑回归分析方法对包括10,000多个数据点的模拟器数据进行统计分析。从统计过程中，得出影响人类可靠性的重要变量，并估算每个重要变量的PSF乘数。从获得的结果中讨论了统计方法的潜力和挑战。 （C）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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