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首页> 外文期刊>Reliability Engineering & System Safety >Uncertainty analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident in a pressurized water reactor using non-parametric methods
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Uncertainty analysis of a large break loss of coolant accident in a pressurized water reactor using non-parametric methods

机译：使用非参数方法分析压水堆冷却剂事故的大破坏损失的不确定性

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摘要

The safety analysis of nuclear power plant is moving toward a realistic approach in which the simulations performed using best estimate computer codes must be accompanied by an uncertainty analysis, known as the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainties approach. The most popular statistical method used in these analyses is the Wilts' method, which is based on the principle of order statistics for determining a certain coverage of the Figures of-Merit with an appropriate degree of confidence. However, there exist other statistical techniques that could provide similar or even better results. This paper explores the performance of alternative non-parametric methods as compared to the Wilks' method of obtaining such Figure-of-Merits tolerance intervals. Three methods are investigated, i.e. Hutson and Beran-Hall methods and a bootstrap method. All the techniques have been used to perform the uncertainty analysis of a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident. The Figure-of-Merit of interest in this application is the maximum value reached by the Peaking Clad Temperature. In order to analyze the results obtained by the different methods, four performance metrics are proposed to measure the coverage, dispersion, conservativeness, and robustness of the tolerance intervals. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：核电厂的安全分析正在朝着逼真的方法发展，在该方法中，使用最佳估计计算机代码执行的模拟必须伴随着不确定性分析，即最佳估计加不确定性方法。这些分析中使用的最流行的统计方法是Wilts方法，该方法基于顺序统计原理，用于以适当的置信度确定品质因数的某个范围。但是，存在其他统计技术可以提供相似甚至更好的结果。与Wilks方法获得品质因数容差区间的方法相比，本文探讨了替代性非参数方法的性能。研究了三种方法，即Hutson和Beran-Hall方法以及bootstrap方法。所有技术均已用于对冷却液事故大断裂损失进行不确定性分析。此应用程序中值得关注的品质因数是峰熔覆温度达到的最大值。为了分析通过不同方法获得的结果，提出了四个性能指标来测量公差区间的覆盖范围，离散度，保守性和鲁棒性。 （C）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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