A Bayesian approach to risk modeling of autonomous subsea intervention operations

Hegde Jeevith; Utne Ingrid Bouwer; Schjolberg Ingrid; Thorkildsen Brede

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A Bayesian approach to risk modeling of autonomous subsea intervention operations

机译：贝叶斯自主海底干预作业风险建模方法

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The introduction of autonomy in subsea operations may affect operational risk related to Inspection, Maintenance, and Repair (IMR). This article proposes a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to model the risk affecting autonomous subsea IMR operations. The proposed BBN risk model can be used to calculate the probability of aborting an autonomous subsea IMR operation. The nodes of the BBN are structured using three main categories, namely technical, organizational, and operational. The BBN is tested for five unique scenarios using a scenario generation methodology for the operational phase of the autonomous IMR operation. The BBN is quantified by conducting a workshop involving industry experts. The results from the proposed model may provide a useful aid to human supervisors in their decision-making processes. The model is verified for five scenarios, but it is capable of incorporating and calculating risk for other combinations of scenarios. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

机译：在海底作业中引入自治可能会影响与检查，维护和修理（IMR）有关的作业风险。本文提出了一种贝叶斯信念网络（BBN），以对影响自主海底IMR操作的风险进行建模。提出的BBN风险模型可用于计算中止自主水下IMR操作的可能性。 BBN的节点使用三个主要类别进行结构化，即技术，组织和操作。在自动IMR操作的操作阶段，使用方案生成方法对BBN进行了五个独特方案的测试。 BBN通过举办由行业专家参加的研讨会进行量化。所提出模型的结果可能为人类主管的决策过程提供有用的帮助。该模型已针对五个场景进行了验证，但是它能够合并和计算其他场景组合的风险。（C）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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来源
《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2018年第7期|142-159|共18页
作者
Hegde Jeevith; Utne Ingrid Bouwer; Schjolberg Ingrid; Thorkildsen Brede;
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作者单位

Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Ctr Autonomous Marine Operat & Syst AMOS, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;

Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Ctr Autonomous Marine Operat & Syst AMOS, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;

Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Ctr Autonomous Marine Operat & Syst AMOS, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;

TechntipFMC AS, Kirkegardsveien 45, N-3616 Kongsberg, Norway;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Bayesian Belief Network; Decision-support; Risk; Subsea IMR; Autonomy;

机译：贝叶斯信念网络;决策支持;风险;海底IMR;自治;

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A Bayesian approach to risk modeling of autonomous subsea intervention operations

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