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Aggregate discounted warranty cost forecasting considering the failed-but-not-reported events

机译：考虑了失败但未报告的事件的总折现保修成本预测

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摘要

Warranty claims usually incur substantial costs to the manufacturers. In practice, it is not accurate or economical to reserve money for future claims based on the prediction of the overall (life cycle) warranty cost. As a more appropriate alternative, the aggregate warranty cost forecast technique can reduce the liquidity risks and improve the warranty service efficiency. In addition, when a product fails during the warranty period, a warranty claim will be counted only when the customer reports the failure to the manufacturer. This paper focuses on forecasting the discounted warranty cost, which depends on the product sales and failure processes, warranty terms, and customer behaviors, over arbitrary time interval. To characterize the failed but-not-reported phenomenon, a flexible time-dependent function is proposed. We derive the mathematical formulations of related factors to discuss the modeling process of total discounted warranty cost over an arbitrary time interval (TDWCATI). The impacts of warranty length and customer reporting behavior are explored. The expectation and variance of the TDWCATI are obtained under the pro-rata warranty policy and the nonrenewable minimal-repair policy, which shows that the TDWCATI is useful in planning future warranty services and budgets over a specific time period. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：保修索赔通常会给制造商带来可观的成本。在实践中，基于对总体（生命周期）保修成本的预测来为将来的索赔预留资金是不准确或不经济的。作为更合适的替代方法，总保修成本预测技术可以减少流动性风险并提高保修服务效率。此外，如果产品在保修期内出现故障，则仅在客户向制造商报告故障时才计入保修索赔。本文着重于预测折价的保修成本，该成本取决于产品在任意时间间隔内的销售和故障过程，保修条款和客户行为。为了表征失败但未报告的现象，提出了一种灵活的时变函数。我们推导了相关因素的数学公式，以讨论任意时间间隔（TDWCATI）上总折扣保修成本的建模过程。探索了保修期限和客户报告行为的影响。 TDWCATI的期望和差异是在按比例保修政策和不可更新的最小维修政策下获得的，这表明TDWCATI在规划特定时间范围内的未来保修服务和预算方面很有用。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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