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Resilience analytics with disruption of preferences and lifecycle cost analysis for energy microgrids

机译：弹性分析和偏好的中断以及能源微电网的生命周期成本分析

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摘要

Innovative technologies are presenting opportunities to improve resilience of energy plans for industrial and military installations. The investment rationale is complicated by uncertain future conditions across the system lifecycle, including technology, climate, economy, and others. This paper introduces resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences as follows. Risk is addressed here as the degree of disruption of priorities for investments in engineering systems. The particular concern of this paper is disruption from shifts in public values, and to evaluate the resilience of investment plans to such shifts. It recognizes resilience models as compilations of instantaneous framings of initiatives, objectives, stakeholder preferences, and uncertainties. Problem frames can be considered in series, where inputs to frames are the outputs of previous frames. Or frames can be considered in parallel, featuring joint inputs while addressing differing questions. This paper presents a case study of resilience analytics focusing on two quantitative frames. In the first frame, scenario-based preferences are used to identify combinations of factors disruptive to energy innovation at installations. In the second frame, estimation of lifecycle costs is performed with respect to factors that were identified as influential in the previous frame. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：创新技术为提高工业和军事设施能源计划的弹性提供了机会。由于整个系统生命周期中不确定的未来条件（包括技术，气候，经济等），投资的基本原理变得复杂。本文介绍了基于场景的首选项的弹性分析，如下所示。此处，风险是指对工程系统投资的优先级受到破坏的程度。本文特别关注的是公共价值转变的中断，以及评估投资计划对这种转变的弹性。它将应变能力模型识别为举措，目标，利益相关者的偏好和不确定性的瞬时框架的汇编。问题帧可以串联考虑，其中帧的输入是先前帧的输出。或者可以并行考虑框架，以联合输入为基础，同时解决不同的问题。本文介绍了针对两个定量框架的弹性分析案例研究。在第一帧中，基于情景的首选项用于识别破坏设施能源创新的因素的组合。在第二个框架中，对在前一个框架中被认为具有影响力的因素进行生命周期成本估算。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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