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Invariant methods for an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis of a passive containment cooling system of an AP1000 nuclear power plant

机译:AP1000核电站被动安全壳冷却系统基于整体灵敏度分析的不变方法

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摘要

Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is performed to gain fundamental insights on a system behavior that is usually reproduced by a model and to identify the most relevant input variables whose variations affect the system model functional response. For the reliability analysis of passive safety systems of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), models are Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes, that predict the system functional response in normal and accidental conditions and, in this paper, an ensemble of three alternative invariant SA methods is innovatively set up for a SA on the TH code input variables. The ensemble aggregates the input variables raking orders provided by Pearson correlation ratio, Delta method and Beta method. The capability of the ensemble is shown on a BE-TH code of the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized water reactor AP1000, during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), whose output probability density function (pdf) is approximated by a Finite Mixture Model (FMM), on the basis of a limited number of simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:进行灵敏度分析(SA)以获得对通常由模型重现的系统行为的基本了解,并确定其变化会影响系统模型功能响应的最相关的输入变量。为了对核电站(NPPs)的被动安全系统进行可靠性分析,模型是最佳估计(BE)热工水力(TH)代码,该代码可预测正常和意外情况下的系统功能响应,并且在本文中,将创新地为TH代码输入变量上的SA建立了三种可选的不变SA方法。集合集合由Pearson相关比,Delta方法和Beta方法提供的输入变量倾斜顺序。在冷却水事故(LOCA)期间,先进压水堆AP1000的被动安全壳冷却系统(PCCS)的BE-TH代码上显示了集合的功能,其输出概率密度函数(pdf)近似在有限数量的模拟的基础上,由有限混合模型(FMM)生成。 (C)2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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