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Grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation using Monte Carlo approach: The Brazilian case

机译：使用蒙特卡洛方法的分布式光伏发电的电网奇偶分析：巴西案例

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We have conducted a grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation in Brazil through the use of a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach. Essentially, we have derived the probability distribution of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both PV and grid electricity. We have thus assessed how likely grid parity will occur with respect to system's nominal power and financing scheme in a net metering framework, by computing the cumulative probability for which the LCOE difference is nonnegative: P(Delta LCOE = 0). Regarding southern Brazil, it appears that economic viability of many residential gridconnected PV systems in operation is far from guaranteed, due to the need for substantial own capital and nominal capacity. 4-kW systems might be viable (P(Delta LCOE = 0) = 0.82) but only by relying on equity financing, while small systems around 2 kW will not (P(Delta LCOE = 0) = 0.3). When debt financing is considered however, merely systems with nominal capacity above 7 kW present significant confidence levels (P(Delta LCOE = 0) 0.95). Eventually, it is outlined that electric company, state tax policy and consumption class are the effective leverages when assessing whether cost of distributed PV generation shall reach parity in the country. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：我们使用概率蒙特卡罗方法对巴西分布式光伏发电进行了电网平价分析。从本质上讲，我们已经得出了光伏和电网用电的平均电费（LCOE）的概率分布。因此，通过计算LCOE差异为非负值的累积概率：P（Delta LCOE> = 0），我们评估了净计量框架中相对于系统的标称功率和融资方案的电网平价可能性。关于巴西南部，由于需要大量的自有资金和名义容量，因此看来许多运行中的居民并网光伏系统的经济可行性远未得到保证。 4千瓦系统可能是可行的（P（Delta LCOE> = 0）= 0.82），但只能依靠股权融资，而2 kW左右的小型系统则不可行（P（Delta LCOE> = 0）<= 0.3）。但是，当考虑债务融资时，只有标称容量高于7 kW的系统才具有显着的置信度（P（Delta LCOE> = 0）> 0.95）。最终，概述了电力公司，州税收政策和消费类别是评估该国分布式光伏发电的成本是否达到同等水平时的有效杠杆。 （C）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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