...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Renewable energy >The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM
【24h】

The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

机译：加州风能的未来：可变分辨率CESM的未来预测

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. In this study, historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GI, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译：风向变化是全球气候变化的预期结果，对风能生产具有直接影响。但是，众所周知，风很难预测，而且我们对气候变化对现有风力发电能力的影响的理解仍然存在很大的不确定性。在这项研究中，研究了加利福尼亚州五个风力涡轮机站点的历史和未来风气候学以及相关的容量因子。使用可变分辨率社区地球系统模型（VR-CESM）进行了历史（1980-2000年）和本世纪中叶（2030-2050年）模拟，以了解这些风力发电场预计如何受到气候变化的影响。由DNV GI提供的高分辨率统计缩小的WRF产品，重新分析数据集MERRA-2，CFSR，NARR和观测数据用于模型验证和比较。这些预测表明，基于多个风电场站点的重大变化，预计整个州的风力发电能力将在夏季增加，在秋季和冬季减少。这项研究改善了在不久的将来加州风能资源的时空大小和可变性周围不确定性的特征，也加深了我们对与风能可变性趋势相关的物理机制的理解。由Elsevier Ltd.发布

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号