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Predictive analysis on electric-power supply and demand in China

机译：中国电力供需预测分析

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摘要

In order to analyze the electric-power demand and supply in China efficiently, this paper presents a Grey-Markov forecasting model to forecast the electric-power demand in China. This method takes into account the general trend series and random fluctuations about original time-series data. It has the merits of both simplicity of application and high forecasting precision. This paper was based on historical data of the electric-power requirement from 1985 to 2001 in China, and forecasted and analyzed the electric-power supply and demand in China by the Grey-Markov forecasting model. The forecasting precision of Grey-Markov forecasting model from 2002 to 2004 is 99.42%, 98.05% and 97.56% respectively, and in GM(1,1) Grey forecasting model, it is 98.53%, 94.02% and 88.48%, respectively. It shows that the Grey—Markov forecasting models has higher precision than GM(1,1) Grey forecasting model. The forecast values from 2002 to 2013 were as follows: 16106.7, 18541.3, 20575.7, 23940.5, 24498.0, 26785.1, 27977.2, 29032.2, 31247.5, 33428.8, 35865.4, and 38399.3TWh. The results provide scientific basis for the planned development of the electric-power supply in China.
机译：为了有效地分析中国的电力需求和供给，本文提出了一种灰色马尔可夫预测模型来预测中国的电力需求。该方法考虑了一般趋势序列和有关原始时间序列数据的随机波动。它具有应用简单和预测精度高的优点。本文基于中国1985年至2001年电力需求的历史数据，运用灰色马尔可夫预测模型对中国的电力供需进行了预测和分析。 Grey-Markov预测模型从2002年到2004年的预测精度分别为99.42％，98.05％和97.56％，而GM（1,1）Gray预测模型的预测精度分别为98.53％，94.02％和88.48％。结果表明，灰色马尔可夫预测模型比GM（1,1）灰色预测模型具有更高的精度。从2002年到2013年的预测值如下：16106.7、18541.3、20575.7、23940.5、24498.0、26785.1、27977.2、29032.2、31247.5、33428.8、35865.4和38399.3TWh。研究结果为我国电力发展规划提供了科学依据。

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