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首页> 外文期刊>Renewable Power Generation, IET >Statistical profiling of site wind resource speed and directional characteristics
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Statistical profiling of site wind resource speed and directional characteristics

机译：现场风资源速度和方向特征的统计分析

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Construction of a wind farm without a reliable plant margin forecast can jeopardise potential returns on investment from the outset. Meteorological and topological factors influence the wind characteristics across any site which in turn affects wind farm output, critical for localised generation, and also the dynamic loading of the turbine structure. The models developed in this study follow the generally advocated use of probability density estimation as a means of representing wind resource characteristics but, owing to differences, in characterisation that may be encountered, do not assume a single distribution form across all sites. A mixture modelling approach is adopted that removes the need for choosing distribution forms on a site by site basis. Advancing previous work constructing statistical distributions over congruent wind speed and direction observations of the wind resource characteristics at a given site, the proposed model, as a consequence of using a mixture distribution, captures both recurring regimes in the site behaviour along with their frequency of occurrence. Preliminary results using data sets from a diverse range of locations in Scotland demonstrate the variation in the forms of model learned; comparisons of the model with current and alternate practices are given through visualisation and resource assessment illustrations.
机译：从一开始，没有可靠的工厂利润预测的风电场建设会危害潜在的投资回报。气象和拓扑因素会影响任何站点的风特性，进而影响风电场的输出功率，这对于局部发电以及涡轮机结构的动态负载至关重要。在这项研究中开发的模型遵循了通常提倡的使用概率密度估计来表示风能特征的方法，但是由于存在差异，在表征方面可能会出现差异，因此并未假设所有站点都采用单一分布形式。采用了混合建模方法，无需再逐个站点选择分发形式。推进先前的工作，即根据给定站点的风速和风资源特性的全向风速和方向观测值构建统计分布，由于使用了混合分布，因此所提出的模型捕获了站点行为中的两种重复出现方式以及它们的出现频率。使用来自苏格兰不同地区的数据集得到的初步结果表明，所学模型的形式存在差异。通过可视化和资源评估插图给出了模型与当前和替代实践的比较。

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