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首页> 外文期刊>Renewable Power Generation, IET >Risk-based security assessment of transmission line overloading considering spatio-temporal dependence of load and wind power using vine copula
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Risk-based security assessment of transmission line overloading considering spatio-temporal dependence of load and wind power using vine copula

机译：考虑风电与时空相关性的输电线路过载的基于风险的安全评估

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摘要

Location of wind power plants and demand centres are not always close by; hence, the transmission of energy puts a burden on existing grid infrastructure. This unwanted burden necessitates transmission lines to operate more and more frequently close to their operating limits. To alleviate such situations, this research addresses the advantages of modelling spatio-temporal dependence of load and wind power using vine copula. Probabilistic AC optimal power flow is performed on a modified IEEE 39-bus system with significant wind penetration. Real load and wind power data from a U.S. utility is mapped onto the test-case to achieve realistic results. Load flow calculation can help in performing steady-state voltage and overload evaluations for post-disturbance system conditions, because the security level of a power system is determined by the likelihood and severity of security violation. In this research, the probability of line overload is calculated from load flow and the severity function describes the risk of line overloading. Two case studies depicting future operating conditions of massive wind power penetration with reduced fossil fuel and nuclear power generation are considered. Simulation results prove the advantage of addressing spatio-temporal dependency to quantify the overload risk index, which is treated as a security indicator.
机译：风力发电厂和需求中心的位置并不总是在附近；因此，能源的传输给现有的电网基础设施带来了负担。这种不希望的负担使得传输线越来越频繁地接近其工作极限进行操作。为了缓解这种情况，本研究解决了使用藤蔓copula建模负荷和风能时空相关性的优势。交流可能的最优功率流是在改良的IEEE 39总线系统上执行的，该系统具有显着的防风能力。将来自美国公用事业公司的实际负载和风能数据映射到测试用例上，以获得真实的结果。潮流计算可以帮助执行扰动后系统状况的稳态电压和过载评估，因为电力系统的安全级别由违反安全性的可能性和严重性确定。在这项研究中，根据潮流计算出线路过载的概率，而严重性函数则描述了线路过载的风险。考虑了两个案例研究，这些案例描述了减少化石燃料和核能发电的大规模风能渗透的未来运行条件。仿真结果证明了解决时空依赖性以量化过载风险指数（被视为安全指标）的优势。

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