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How to peak carbon emissions of provincial construction industry? Scenario analysis of Jiangsu Province

机译：如何省级建筑业碳排放量？ 江苏省的情景分析

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摘要

China has become the world's largest carbon emitter, and its commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 is important for global development. The construction industry is one of China's biggest carbon emitters, and its peak has a direct impact on China's carbon commitment. Due to the regional heterogeneity of different provinces, the carbon emission of construction industry (CECI) at provincial level is of unique significance. To accurately predict the peak of provincial CECI, a prediction model was established by system dynamics, including direct CECI, indirect CECI and operational CECI. Taking Jiangsu province as an example, the single and multiple scenario settings with increasing R&D investment, promoting energy-saving buildings and implementing carbon trading from 2016 to 2030 was carried out, indicating that: 1) Without any carbon emission reduction measures, the CECI would maintain an annual growth rate of 5.58% to reach 530.61 million tons by 2030, and the indirect and operational CECI account for the majority of total with an average annual growth rate of 8.02% and 2.79% respectively. 2) All three measures had good carbon reduction effects, which would reduce the total CECI by 26.46% 21.68% and 10.68% respectively by 2030, but only when implemented simultaneously can CECI peak before 2030, 308.77 million tons at 2029. In the end, three policy implications was put forward. The framework presented in this paper provided a basis for the prediction of peak CECI in a province or state, which can help policy makers plan a more reasonable low-carbon development roadmap.
机译：中国已成为世界上最大的碳发射器，2030年对2030年的碳排放峰的承诺对于全球发展是重要的。建筑业是中国最大的碳发射器之一，其峰值对中国的碳承诺产生了直接影响。由于不同省份的区域异质性，省级建筑业（CECI）的碳排放具有独特的意义。为了准确预测省级CECI的峰值，系统动态建立了预测模型，包括直接CECI，间接CECI和运营CECI。以江苏省为例，单一和多种情景设置随着研发投资的增加，推广节能建筑和实施2016年至2030年的碳交易，表明：1）没有任何碳排放减排措施，Ceci将每年增长率5.58％，达到2030年的5.5.61亿吨，间接和运营的CECI占大多数总年增长率分别为8.02％和2.79％。 2）所有三种措施都有良好的碳还原效应，分别将总Ceci减少26.46％的21.68％和10.68％，但只有在2030年之前同时实施的Ceci峰值，在2029年之前3087.7万吨。最后，提出了三项政策影响。本文介绍的框架为省或国家的峰值预测提供了基础，可以帮助政策制定者计划更合理的低碳发展路线图。

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