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Boosting tourism's contribution to growth and development: Analysis of the evidence

机译：促进旅游业对增长和发展的贡献：证据分析

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摘要

The tourism sector's contribution to economic development depends upon complex and dynamic socioeconomic, environmental, and institutional factors. Policymakers require objective evidence to base decisions on which public policies or investments to pursue. In this paper we develop an economy-wide approach to assessing public investments in tourism. The approach is powerful in that it considers all intersectoral linkages that are critical for tourism-sector analysis. This framework is linked to a microsimulation module that enables estimation of household-level and destination-specific impacts and the distribution of benefits. To illustrate the framework and the insights it can generate, we apply it to a public investment in Belize's Cayo District. Our findings show that the overall level of economic activity increases while an appreciation of the real regional exchange rate results in slower growth in traditional nontourism exports. Greater availability of capital and labor to meet increased demand would reduce this effect. The investment results in a reduction in the poverty headcount on the order of 0.7 percentage points, though there is a small increase in inequality that is a function of the skill requirements of the new positions created as a result of the investment.
机译：旅游业对经济发展的贡献取决于复杂而动态的社会经济，环境和体制因素。政策制定者需要客观的证据，以根据哪种公共政策或投资进行决策。在本文中，我们开发了一种经济范围的方法来评估公共旅游业投资。该方法的强大之处在于它考虑了所有对旅游部门分析至关重要的部门间联系。该框架链接到微仿真模块，该模块可以估算家庭水平和特定于目的地的影响以及收益的分配。为了说明该框架及其产生的见解，我们将其应用于伯利兹Cayo区的公共投资。我们的研究结果表明，经济活动的总体水平有所提高，而实际区域汇率的升值导致传统的非旅游业出口增长放缓。资本和劳动力的更多可用以满足日益增长的需求将减少这种影响。这项投资使贫困人数减少了0.7个百分点，尽管不平等现象的增加很小，这是投资产生的新职位所需技能的函数。

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