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Investigating the Dynamic Interaction between Military Spending and Economic Growth

机译：调查军事支出与经济增长之间的动态互动

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摘要

The relationship and interaction of military spending and economic growth have been theoretically and empirically investigated since the 1970s but it still cannot provide conclusive evidence towards the direction and the quantification of the impact between the two magnitudes. The use of different data sets in terms of time periods, and number and geographic location of countries, different theoretical background leading to different econometric specifications, and single type of econometric methodology, make any comparison impossible. This paper looks into the dynamic interaction between military spending and economic growth during the period 1988-2013 that includes the recent years of economic crisis covering 138 countries without making any prior assumptions about the theoretical channels of influence, while not limited to a single estimation method but employing a wide range of methodologies in order to form a complete picture of the long- and short-run interaction. Furthermore, as such interaction might not be linear, we create three groups of countries based on the countries' income developmental stage. Overall we find no evidence of long- and short-run causality from the military spending to economic growth except for the developing countries (positive in the long run). However, from economic growth to military spending we find a positive impact for all groups except the least developed countries. We also notice the interaction was more prominent prior to the start of the economic crisis.
机译：自1970年代以来，对军事支出与经济增长之间的关系和相互作用进行了理论和实证研究，但仍无法提供确定性证据来证明这两个数量级之间的影响的方向和量化。在时间段，国家的数量和地理位置，不同的理论背景导致不同的计量经济学规范以及单一类型的计量经济学方法等方面使用不同的数据集，使得无法进行任何比较。本文研究了1988年至2013年期间军事支出与经济增长之间的动态相互作用，其中包括覆盖138个国家的最近几年的经济危机，而没有对影响的理论渠道进行任何先验假设，但不仅限于一种估计方法但要采用各种方法论以形成长期和短期互动的完整图景。此外，由于这种相互作用可能不是线性的，因此我们根据国家的收入发展阶段创建了三组国家。总体而言，除了发展中国家（长期为正），我们没有发现从军事支出到经济增长的长期和短期因果关系的证据。但是，从经济增长到军事支出，我们发现除最不发达国家外，所有群体都受到积极影响。我们还注意到，在经济危机开始之前，这种互动更加突出。

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  • 来源
    《Review of development economics》 |2017年第3期|511-526|共16页
  • 作者

    Desli E.; Gkoulgkoutsika A.; Katrakilidis C.;

  • 作者单位

    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Econ, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece;

    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Econ, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece;

    Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Econ, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece;

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