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PRICES AND SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS DURING NATURAL DISASTERS

机译：自然灾害期间的价格和供应中断

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摘要

We study the daily behavior of supermarket prices and product availability following two recent natural disasters: the 2010 earthquake in Chile and the 2011 earthquake in Japan. In both cases there was an immediate and persistent effect on product availability. The number of goods available for sale fell 32 percent in Chile and 17 percent in Japan from the day of the disaster to its lowest point, which occurred 61 and 18 days after the earthquakes, respectively. Product availability recovered slowly, and a significant share of goods remained out of stock after six months. By contrast, prices were relatively stable and did not increase for months after the earthquakes, even for goods that were experiencing severe stockouts. These trends are present at all levels of aggregation, but appear strongly in non-perishable goods and emergency products. Our findings shed light into the determinants of sticky prices in conditions where traditional adjustment costs are less important. In particular, we look at the frequency and magnitudes of price changes in both countries and find that the results in Chile are consistent with pricing models where retailers have fear of "customer anger". In Japan, by contrast, the evidence suggests a bigger role for supply disruptions that restricted the ability of retailers to re-stock goods after the earthquake.
机译：我们研究了最近发生的两次自然灾害（2010年智利地震和2011年日本地震）后超市价格和产品供应的日常行为。在这两种情况下，对产品的可用性都有直接而持久的影响。从灾难发生之日到震后的最低点，智利的可售商品数量下降了32％，日本下降了17％。产品的供应情况恢复缓慢，六个月后仍有相当一部分商品缺货。相比之下，地震后几个月的价格相对稳定，即使有严重缺货的商品也没有上涨。这些趋势存在于各个层次的汇总中，但在不易腐烂的货物和应急产品中却很明显。我们的发现揭示了在传统调整成本不太重要的情况下粘性价格的决定因素。特别是，我们研究了两个国家中价格变化的频率和幅度，发现智利的结果与零售商担心“客户愤怒”的定价模型一致。相比之下，在日本，证据表明，供应中断的作用更大，从而限制了地震后零售商重新库存商品的能力。

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