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首页> 外文期刊>Review of Income and Wealth >TESTING PREDICTION PERFORMANCE OF POVERTY MODELS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA
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TESTING PREDICTION PERFORMANCE OF POVERTY MODELS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

机译：测试贫困模型的预测性能：乌干达的经验证据

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摘要

This paper examines the performance of a method of predicting poverty rates. Because most developing countries cannot justify the expense of frequent household budget surveys, additional low-cost methods have been developed and used. The prediction method is based on a model linking the proportion of poor households to suitable explanatory variables (consumption proxies). These consumption proxies are variables that can be collected at much lower cost through smaller annual surveys. Several applications have shown that such models can produce poverty estimates with confidence intervals of a similar magnitude to the poverty estimates from the household budget surveys. There is, however, limited evidence of how well the methods perform out-of-sample. A series of seven household budget surveys conducted in Uganda in the period 1993-2005 allows us to test the prediction performance of the model. We test the poverty models by using data from one survey to predict the proportion of poor households in other surveys, and vice versa. The results are encouraging, as all models predict similar poverty trends. Although in most cases the predictions are precise, sometimes they differ significantly from the poverty level estimated from the survey directly.
机译：本文研究了一种预测贫困率的方法的性能。由于大多数发展中国家无法证明需要进行频繁的家庭预算调查，因此已经开发并使用了其他低成本方法。预测方法基于将贫困家庭比例与适当的解释变量（消费代表）联系起来的模型。这些消耗代理是变量，可以通过较小的年度调查以较低的成本收集。若干应用表明，这种模型可以产生置信区间的贫困估计，其置信区间与家庭预算调查中的贫困估计相似。但是，关于这些方法执行样本外性能的证据有限。 1993年至2005年期间在乌干达进行的一系列七个家庭预算调查使我们能够检验该模型的预测性能。我们通过使用一项调查中的数据来预测其他调查中的贫困家庭比例来测试贫困模型，反之亦然。结果令人鼓舞，因为所有模型都预测了相似的贫困趋势。尽管在大多数情况下，预测是准确的，但有时它们与直接从调查中估计的贫困水平有很大出入。

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