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首页> 外文期刊>Review of Income and Wealth >CHANGES IN THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF THE DUTCH ELDERLY BETWEEN 1989 AND 2020: A DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION
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CHANGES IN THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF THE DUTCH ELDERLY BETWEEN 1989 AND 2020: A DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION

机译：1989年至2020年荷兰老年人的收入分配变化：动态微观模拟

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摘要

This paper analyzes the income distribution of the Dutch elderly using a microsimulation model. Microsimulation models allow for detailed estimates of the income distribution. Our model deviates from traditional models by explicitly considering the persistency and heteroskedasticity of real income shocks. In this way, modeling all underlying processes influencing household income becomes less necessary, which can improve the trade-off between refinement and tractability of microsimulation models. We show the results of three model specifications with different levels of refinement. The results are in line and indicate that between 2008 and 2020, the highest predicted annual growth among the elderly is for median-income households (about 1.2 percent). High-income households have a somewhat lower predicted growth (about 1.0 percent) and low-income households only have a predicted annual growth of 0.5 percent. Inequality therefore seems to increase in the lower part of the distribution, while it will probably decline in the upper part of the distribution.
机译：本文使用微观模拟模型分析了荷兰老年人的收入分配。微观模拟模型可以详细估算收入分配。通过明确考虑实际收入冲击的持续性和异方差性，我们的模型与传统模型有所不同。这样，对影响家庭收入的所有基本过程进行建模的必要性就降低了，这可以改善微观模拟模型的细化和易处理性之间的权衡。我们显示了三种模型规范的结果，这些模型规范具有不同的改进级别。结果是一致的，表明在2008年至2020年之间，老年人中预计的最高年增长率是中等收入家庭（约1.2％）。高收入家庭的预测增长率略低（约1.0％），而低收入家庭的预测年增长率仅为0.5％。因此，不平等似乎在分布的下部增加，而不平等现象可能在分布的上部下降。

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