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Trade exposure and electoral protectionism: evidence from Japanese politician-level data

机译：贸易曝光和选举策略：来自日本政治家级数据的证据

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摘要

This study empirically examines the causal impact of economic shocks of trade on trade policy positions by candidates who run for national elections using politician-level data of Japan during the period from 2009 to 2014. The focus of this research is an examination of how the influence of trade shocks, measured by import competition with China on politicians' trade policy stance, is related to election pressure. The results revealed that an increase in import exposure deters candidates from supporting trade liberalization, even after considering offset by export exposure. Among other points, this protectionist effect is more pronounced for challengers than for incumbents, and for candidates who run for the Lower House election and are exposed to stronger pressures of elections than those who run for the Upper House election. Taking these findings into account, politicians who face trade shocks tend to appeal to protectionist trade policies as the pressures of elections become stronger.
机译：本研究审查了在2009年至2014年期间利用日本政客级数据运行的候选人经济贸易贸易贸易贸易对贸易政策职务的因果影响。这项研究的重点是考察如何影响通过与中国对政客贸易政策立场的进口竞争来衡量的贸易冲击，与选举压力有关。结果表明，即使在考虑出口敞口后，也会导航进口敞口导航候选人支持贸易自由化。除其他要点之外，这种保护主义效应比现有人更为明显，而不是对现任者进行挑战，以及为较低房屋选举而奔跑的候选人，而且暴露于比跑为上所不机选举的竞选压力更强。考虑到这些调查结果，由于选举的压力变得更强，因此面临贸易震动的政治家倾向于吸引保护主义贸易政策。

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