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Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies

机译：新兴市场经济中外债融资，信贷周期和产出波动之间的互连

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摘要

This paper examines the role of external debt financing (EDF) in shaping the credit cycles and the joint implications of EDF flows and credit growth for the output volatility in ten major emerging economies. We find that extreme phases-known as surge and stop episodes-in EDF flows are significantly associated with credit surges and stop episodes as shown by a panel multinominal logit estimation. However, the association is asymmetric-EDF stop episodes are more likely to bring about a credit stop episode compared to the occurrence of credit surges due to EDF surges. The results suggest vulnerabilities of credit cycles of EMEs to the sharp movement in EDF flows which in turn is typically synchronized with global liquidity conditions. In the second part of our analysis, using the bias-corrected LSDV estimation for the dynamic panels, we find that EDF flows and credit jointly have a strong amplifying impact on the output volatility. Moreover, EMEs also face large output volatility when EDF stop and credit stop episodes occur together. The results implicate a broader welfare loss in the form of output fluctuations due to a strong synchronization between external debt financing and domestic credit conditions. Significant output fluctuations are also a cause of concern for policymakers in EMEs who seek to insulate their economies from external and domestic financial shocks.
机译：本文介绍了外债融资（EDF）在塑造信贷周期方面的作用以及EDF流量和信贷增长在十大新兴经济体中的产出波动的共同影响。我们发现称为浪涌和停止剧集的极端阶段和停止剧集与信用浪涌和停止剧集显着相关，如面板多语程估计所示。然而，与EDF潮涌的信贷飙升相比，关联是不对称的，EDF STOP剧集更有可能带来信用停止集。结果表明EME信用循环对EDF流动急剧运动的脆弱性，这又与全局流动性条件同步。在我们分析的第二部分中，使用动态面板的偏置LSDV估计，我们发现EDF流动和信贷共同对输出波动的强大影响。此外，当EDF STOP和信用止动陷阱发生在一起时，EME也面临大的输出波动。由于外部债务融资和国内信贷条件的强劲同步，这些结果致力于产出波动形式的更广泛的福利损失。显着的产出波动也是寻求将其经济免受外部和国内金融冲击的地区的政策制定者关注的原因。

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