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How to Design Rating Schemes of Risk Matrices: A Sequential Updating Approach

机译：如何设计风险矩阵评分方案：一种顺序更新方法

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摘要

Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix in a reliable way. In this article, we propose three principles and a rating algorithm based on these principles. The three principles, namely, adjusted weak consistency, consistent internality, and continuous screening, characterize a good rating scheme. The resulting rating scheme has been proven to be unique. A global rating algorithm is then proposed to create the design that satisfies the three principles. We then explore the performance of the SUA. An illustrative application is first given to explain the feasibility of our approach. The sensitivity analysis shows that our method captures a resolution-reliability tradeoff for decisionmakers in choosing an appropriate rating scheme for a risk matrix. Finally, we compare the designs based on the SUA and Cox's axioms, highlighting the advantages of the SUA.
机译：由于风险矩阵的简单性和直观性，它们已在许多领域中广泛用作风险评估工具。设计评级方案，即确定风险矩阵中使用的评级数量并将不同的评级分配给不同的单元，是风险矩阵构建的重要组成部分。但是，大多数相关文献都集中于将风险矩阵应用于各个领域，而不是研究如何设计风险矩阵。在分析当前几种规则的基础上，我们提出了一种新的方法，即顺序更新法（SUA），以一种可靠的方式设计了风险矩阵的评级方案。在本文中，我们提出了三种原理以及基于这些原理的评级算法。调整后的弱一致性，一致的内在性和连续筛选这三个原则是好的评级方案的特征。由此产生的评级方案已被证明是独一无二的。然后提出一种全局评级算法，以创建满足这三个原理的设计。然后，我们探索SUA的性能。首先给出一个说明性的应用来解释我们方法的可行性。敏感性分析表明，在为风险矩阵选择适当的评估方案时，我们的方法可为决策者捕捉分辨率-可靠性的权衡。最后，我们比较了基于SUA和Cox公理的设计，突出了SUA的优势。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2018年第1期|99-117|共19页
  • 作者

    Li Jianping; Bao Chunbing; Wu Dengsheng;

  • 作者单位

    Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, 15 Beiyitiao, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China|Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, 15 Beiyitiao, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China|Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, 15 Beiyitiao, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Rating scheme; risk assessment; risk category; risk matrix;

    机译：评级方案;风险评估;风险类别;风险矩阵;

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