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Assessing the Cost of Large-Scale Power Outages to Residential Customers

机译：评估居民用户的大规模停电成本

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Residents in developed economies depend heavily on electric services. While distributed resources and a variety of new smart technologies can increase the reliability of that service, adopting them involves costs, necessitating tradeoffs between cost and reliability. An important input to making such tradeoffs is an estimate of the value customers place on reliable electric services. We develop an elicitation framework that helps individuals think systematically about the value they attach to reliable electric service. Our approach employs a detailed and realistic blackout scenario, full or partial (20 A) backup service, questions about willingness to pay (WTP) using a multiple bounded discrete choice method, information regarding inconveniences and economic losses, and checks for bias and consistency. We applied this method to a convenience sample of residents in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, finding that respondents valued a kWh for backup services they assessed to be high priority more than services that were seen as low priority ($0.75/kWh vs. $0.51/kWh). As more information about the consequences of a blackout was provided, this difference increased ($1.2/kWh vs. $0.35/kWh), and respondents' uncertainty about the backup services decreased (Full: $11 to $9.0, Partial: $13 to $11). There was no evidence that the respondents were anchored by their previous WTP statements, but they demonstrated only weak scope sensitivity. In sum, the consumer surplus associated with providing a partial electric backup service during a blackout may justify the costs of such service, but measurement of that surplus depends on the public having accurate information about blackouts and their consequences.
机译：发达经济体的居民严重依赖电力服务。尽管分布式资源和各种新的智能技术可以提高服务的可靠性，但采用它们会涉及成本，因此必须在成本和可靠性之间进行权衡。进行这种折衷的重要输入是对客户在可靠的电气服务上的价值的估计。我们开发了启发框架，可帮助个人系统地思考他们对可靠的电力服务所附加的价值。我们的方法采用详细而现实的停电方案，全部或部分（20 A）备份服务，关于使用多重有界离散选择方法的支付意愿（WTP）的问题，有关不便之处和经济损失的信息，并检查偏差和一致性。我们将此方法应用于宾夕法尼亚州阿勒格尼县居民的便利样本中，发现与被认为低优先级的服务相比，受访者对他们评估为高优先级的备用服务的千瓦时价值更高（$ 0.75 / kWh对$ 0.51 / kWh） 。随着提供有关停电后果的更多信息，这种差异增加了（$ 1.2 / kWh与$ 0.35 / kWh），并且受访者对备用服务的不确定性有所降低（全面：$ 11至$ 9.0，部分：$ 13至$ 11）。没有证据表明受访者被他们以前的WTP声明所吸引，但是他们仅显示出较弱的范围敏感性。总而言之，在停电期间与提供部分电力备用服务相关的消费者剩余可以证明这种服务的成本是合理的，但是对该盈余的度量取决于公众是否掌握有关停电及其后果的准确信息。

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