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Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region

机译：弹性分析在发展中地区电网中的应用

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摘要

Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion.
机译：动荡地区的基础设施建设是国际政府和非政府组织的一项重大投资，同时伴随着风险管理的要求。全球开发银行可能会负责管理这些投资，并在捐助者和借款者之间提供渠道。此外，私营部门，本地和国际机构以及军队的各种利益相关者可以参与组成项目的构思，计划和实施。强调基础设施发展的军事冲突，政治，经济，技术，环境，行为，机构和社会的紧急情况和未来状况十分普遍，筹资机制容易受到欺诈，浪费和滥用的影响。本文将应用基于情景的首选项的弹性分析来确定最能影响阿富汗电力部门计划优先级的压力源。本文中的适应性是根据压力源影响利益相关者的偏好时优先级中断的程度，以及最终优先考虑举措而设计的。辅助结果包括了解哪些举措对战略标准的贡献最大和最小，以及哪些标准对分析的影响最大。本文最后提出了通过生命周期和电网容量扩展范围对压力源组合进行风险监控和风险管理的建议。

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