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Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk

机译：传达保护状况：不同的统计评估标准如何影响灭绝风险的感知

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摘要

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single-event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics.
机译：尽管常规地使用其他形式的统计和口头信息向决策者和公众传达物种灭绝的风险，但是人们对它们对受众信息处理和风险感知的影响知之甚少。为了解决文献中的这一空白，我们报告了一项旨在探究灭绝风险的感知如何与科学家用来对IUCN红色名录风险水平内的物种进行分类的五个不同评估基准（标准AE）有关的实验的报告。极度濒危，脆弱）以及关键个人差异在这些影响中的作用（例如，理性和经验性的思维方式，对环境的关注）。尽管它们在IUCN分类系统中具有规范上的等效性，但结果显示了特定评估标准的不同影响：平均而言，以随时间推移的人口比例下降（标准A）和剩余个体数量（标准D）描述灭绝风险的最高水平物种灭绝的单事件概率（准则E）产生的风险最小。此外，与理性程度较低的参与者相比，理性程度较高（分析思维）的参与者较不倾向于表现出这些偏见。我们的发现表明，尽管在科学专家眼中，IUCN标准确实能够在非专业人群中产生不同程度的风险感知，这种影响对那些负责向不同公众传达保护状况的人产生直接而重要的影响。

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