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Deciding with Thresholds: Importance Measures and Value of Information

机译：用阈值决定：重要性度量和信息价值

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摘要

Risk-informed decision making is often accompanied by the specification of an acceptable level of risk. Such target level is compared against the value of a risk metric, usually computed through a probabilistic safety assessment model, to decide about the acceptability of a given design, the launch of a space mission, etc. Importance measures complement the decision process with information about the risk/safety significance of events. However, importance measures do not tell us whether the occurrence of an event can change the overarching decision. By linking value of information and importance measures for probabilistic risk assessment models, this work obtains a value-of-information-based importance measure that brings together the risk metric, risk importance measures, and the risk threshold in one expression. The new importance measure does not impose additional computational burden because it can be calculated from our knowledge of the risk achievement and risk reduction worth, and complements the insights delivered by these importance measures. Several properties are discussed, including the joint decision worth of basic event groups. The application to the large loss of coolant accident sequence of the Advanced Test Reactor helps us in illustrating the risk analysis insights.
机译：明智的风险决策通常伴随着可接受风险水平的规范。将该目标水平与通常通过概率安全评估模型计算的风险度量值进行比较，以决定给定设计的可接受性，航天任务的发射等。重要措施通过以下信息补充决策过程：事件的风险/安全意义。但是，重要性度量不能告诉我们事件的发生是否可以改变总体决定。通过将信息的价值与重要性风险评估模型的重要性指标联系起来，这项工作获得了基于信息价值的重要性指标，该指标将风险指标，风险重要性指标和风险阈值整合在一起。新的重要性衡量标准不会增加额外的计算负担，因为它可以根据我们对风险实现和降低风险价值的了解进行计算，并且可以补充这些重要性衡量标准所提供的见解。讨论了几个属性，包括基本事件组的联合决策价值。先进测试反应堆在大量冷却剂事故序列中的应用有助于我们阐明风险分析的见解。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2017年第10期|1828-1848|共21页
  • 作者

    Borgonovo Emanuele; Cillo Alessandra;

  • 作者单位

    Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy|Bocconi Univ, BIDSA, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy;

    Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy|Bocconi Univ, BIDSA, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy|Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, Milan, Italy|Bocconi Univ, IGIER, Milan, Italy;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Importance measures; risk analysis; value of information;

    机译：重要措施;风险分析;信息价值;

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