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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel
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Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

机译：通过从以色列出口公牛精液释放口蹄疫病毒的风险的定量评估

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Various foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non-FMD-free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD-free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10(-7) for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst-case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10(-5), which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.
机译：各种口蹄疫病毒在中东传播，导致以色列牲畜口蹄疫暴发频繁。由于该病毒在精液中具有高度抗性，因此用受污染的公牛精液进行人工授精可能会导致接收牛感染。作为一个非FMD接种疫苗的国家，以色列目前仅与具有相同地位的国家进行牛精液交易。这项研究的目的是评估通过出口公牛精液释放口蹄疫病毒的风险，以便评估考虑购买以色列公牛精液的无口蹄疫国家的风险。使用随机风险评估模型来估计此风险，该模型定义为每年出口至少一种射精的被活FMD病毒污染的公牛精液的可能性。总共评估了45种情景，以说明围绕特定参数估计值的不确定性和可变性，并评估各种缓解措施的效果，例如对精液射精进行出口前测试。在最合理的情况下，每年出口受口蹄疫病毒污染的公牛精液的中位数为1.3 * 10（-7），每年出口100精液。这对应于每700万年出口一次的受感染射精。在最坏的情况下，风险的中位数升至7.9 * 10（-5），相当于每12,000年输出一次受感染的射精。敏感性分析表明，最有影响力的参数是感染公牛病毒排泄的可能性。

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