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The Impact of Population, Contact, and Spatial Heterogeneity on Epidemic Model Predictions

机译：人口，接触和空间异质性对流行病模型预测的影响

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摘要

Our objective was to evaluate the effect that complexity in the form of different levels of spatial, population, and contact heterogeneity has in the predictions of a mechanistic epidemic model. A model that simulates the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases between animal populations was developed. Sixteen scenarios of foot-and-mouth disease infection in cattle were analyzed, involving combinations of the following factors: multiple production-types (PT) with heterogeneous contact and population structure versus single PT, random versus actual spatial distribution of population units, high versus low infectivity, and no vaccination versus preemptive vaccination. The epidemic size and duration was larger for scenarios with multiple PT versus single PT. Ignoring the actual unit locations did not affect the epidemic size in scenarios with multiple PT/high infectivity, but resulted in smaller epidemic sizes in scenarios using multiple PT/low infectivity. In conclusion, when modeling fast-spreading epidemics, knowing the actual locations of population units may not be as relevant as collecting information on population and contact heterogeneity. In contrast, both population and spatial heterogeneity might be important to model slower spreading epidemic diseases. Our findings can be used to inform data collection and modeling efforts to inform health policy and planning.
机译：我们的目标是评估不同程度的空间，人口和接触异质性形式的复杂性对机械流行病模型的预测的影响。建立了一个模拟传染病在动物种群之间时空传播的模型。分析了16种牛口蹄疫感染情况，涉及以下因素的组合：具有异质接触和种群结构的多种生产类型（PT）与单一PT，种群单位的随机与实际空间分布，高与低传染性，相对于先行接种，不接种疫苗。多PT与单PT相比，流行病的规模和持续时间更大。在具有多个PT /高传染性的情况下，忽略实际单位位置并不会影响流行病的规模，但是在具有多个PT /低传染性的情况下，导致流行病的规模较小。总之，在对快速传播的流行病进行建模时，了解人口单位的实际位置可能不如收集有关人口和接触异质性的信息那么重要。相比之下，人口和空间异质性对于模拟慢速传播的流行病可能很重要。我们的发现可用于为数据收集和建模工作提供信息，从而为卫生政策和计划提供信息。

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