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Quantifying the Establishment Likelihood of Invasive Alien Species Introductions Through Ports with Application to Honeybees in Australia

机译：量化通过港口引入外来入侵物种的建立可能性及其在澳大利亚蜜蜂中的应用

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摘要

The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port-specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed-effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one-tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports.
机译：由于未被发现进入港口而导致的不受控制地入侵外来入侵物种（IAS）的代价可能是巨大的，并且需要了解特定于港口的风险以帮助分配有限的监视资源。量化这种入侵的建立可能性需要量化物种进入，建立和传播的能力。 IAS进入港口的进近率的估算提供了进入可能性的度量。有关IAS进场率的数据通常很少，并且与原产国和到达港有关的风险因素组合也多种多样。这对建立可能性的正式统计推断提出了挑战。在这里，我们展示了在估算欧洲（Apis mellifera）和亚洲（A. cerana）蜜蜂进入澳大利亚的可能性以及明智地使用混合效应模型来克服这些挑战时，它们会带来宿主对生物安全性的关注（例如Varroa析构函数）。我们的结果证明了建立可能性的偏斜度，十分之一的港口占两种物种可能性的80％或更多。这些结果已被生物安全机构用于分配资源以监视海港。

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