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Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis

机译：前体分析系统的基础设施系统风险评估

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Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.
机译：物理基础设施系统通常由相互连接且相互依赖的子系统组成，这些子系统本质上构成了系统系统（S-o-S）。系统所有者和策略研究人员需要工具来预见潜在的紧急更改并了解其影响，以便制定有效的风险管理策略。我们开发了一个用于前体分析的系统框架，以支持有效，高效的前体监测和决策支持系统的设计，该系统具有以下能力：（i）识别和优先考虑不断发展的系统故障风险的指标； （ii）评估前体分析的不确定性，以支持知情和理性的决策。这个集成的前体分析框架包括三个过程：前体识别，优先级划分和评估。我们使用公路桥梁S-o-S的示例来演示框架的理论和方法。桥梁维护过程涉及许多相互联系和相互依存的功能子系统和决策实体，桥梁故障可能会带来广泛的社会和经济后果。前体分析框架是风险分析的重要组成部分，它检查了各种桥梁检查和维护方案的影响。它使在策略设置中寻求桥梁基础结构风险观点的策略研究人员和分析人员能够制定更多的风险通报策略，并创建准则以有效分配有限的风险管理资源并减轻桥梁故障导致的严重后果。

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