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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Benefits of Decreased Mortality Risk from Reductions in Primary Mobile Source Fine Particulate Matter: A Limited Data Approach for Urban Areas Worldwide
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Benefits of Decreased Mortality Risk from Reductions in Primary Mobile Source Fine Particulate Matter: A Limited Data Approach for Urban Areas Worldwide

机译：通过减少主要移动源细颗粒物降低死亡率风险的益处：适用于全球城市地区的有限数据方法

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摘要

We developed an approach to estimate the public health benefits resulting from transportation projects or environmental actions that reduce mobile source fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in select urban areas worldwide when input data are limited or when a rapid order-of-magnitude assessment is needed. For a given reduction in direct PM2.5 emissions, we can use this approach to quantify (1) the subsequent reduction in ambient primary PM2.5 concentration in the urban area; (2) the public health benefits associated with mortality risk reductions, measured in terms of avoided premature deaths; and (3) the economic value of the reduced mortality risk. To illustrate our approach, we estimated the impact of a 100-metric-ton reduction in primary PM2.5 mobile source emissions in the year 2010 for 42 large, global cities. Our estimates of public health benefits and their economic value varied by city, as did the sensitivity to key assumptions and inputs. The estimated number of premature deaths avoided per 100-metric-ton reduction in PM2.5 emissions ranged from 12 to 202. City-level variability in these estimates was driven by the magnitude of the reduction in ambient PM2.5 concentration, the size of the urban population, and the baseline PM2.5 concentration. The economic value of mortality risk reductions per 100-metric-ton reduction in PM2.5 emissions ranged from $2 million to $328 million in 2010 U.S. dollars. Income per capita was the most important driver of the variability in the economic values across countries.
机译：我们开发了一种方法来估算运输数据或环境行动所产生的公共健康收益，这些行动会减少输入数据有限或快速数量级评估时在世界范围内某些城市区域中的移动源细颗粒物（PM2.5）的产生。需要。对于给定的直接PM2.5排放量的减少，我们可以使用这种方法来量化（1）随后市区内主要PM2.5浓度的减少； （2）与减少死亡风险相关的公共卫生利益，以避免过早死亡为衡量标准； （3）降低死亡风险的经济价值。为了说明我们的方法，我们估算了2010年全球42个大型城市的主要PM2.5移动源排放量减少100公吨的影响。我们对公共卫生效益及其经济价值的估计因城市而异，对关键假设和投入的敏感性也有所不同。每减少100吨PM2.5排放，避免的过早死亡人数估计在12到202之间。这些估计值中城市水平的变化是由周围PM2.5浓度减少的幅度，城市人口和基线PM2.5浓度。每减少100公吨PM2.5排放，死亡风险降低的经济价值在2010年为200万美元至3.28亿美元。人均收入是各国经济价值差异的最重要驱动因素。

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