From the Editors

Tony Cox; Karen Lowrie

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From the Editors

机译：来自编辑

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When the inputs to risk assessment models are unknown, a risk assessor might ask some people to guess at the unknown values. Although expert judgments and estimates may be incorrect, averages of expert guesses are sometimes much more accurate than individual guesses. This is especially true if the experts can provide (at least approximately) unbiased estimates with statistically independent errors. This is the basic insight behind the centuries-old Con-dorcet Jury Theorem, and behind some of the more recent enthusiasm for the "wisdom of crowds."

机译：当风险评估模型的输入未知时，风险评估者可能会要求某些人猜测未知值。尽管专家的判断和估计可能不正确，但是专家猜测的平均值有时比个人猜测要准确得多。如果专家可以提供（至少近似）带有统计独立误差的无偏估计，则尤其如此。这是具有数百年历史的孔德陪审团定理的基本见解，也是对“人群智慧”的一些最新热情的基本见解。

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《Risk analysis》 |2015年第1期|1-4|共4页
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Tony Cox; Karen Lowrie;
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