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An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change

机译：IPCC气候变化报告中对风险和不确定性的处理评估

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摘要

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided.
机译：在规模和潜在后果方面，很少有全球威胁能与全球气候变化相抗衡。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）是评估气候风险的主要国际权威。通过反复的评估，IPCC投入了大量的精力和跨学科的能力来阐明气候风险和不确定性的共同特征。我们已经审查了该评估及其在2013年和2014年发布的《第五次评估报告》的基础，尤其是针对IPCC第五次评估报告的主要作者关于一致对待不确定性的指导说明。我们的分析表明，ICPP开展的工作缺乏为风险和不确定性的处理提供理论和概念上令人信服的基础。我们进行评估的主要原因是：（i）风险概念的定义过于狭窄（后果和概率/可能性的函数）； （ii）报告在描述其概念和方法时不够精确。本文的目的是为改进IPCC未来研究中不确定性和风险的处理做出贡献，从而在理论上获得更可靠的表征，并提高该领域风险分析的科学质量。提供了一些有关如何改善风险和不确定性处理的建议。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2015年第4期|701-712|共12页
  • 作者

    Aven Terje; Renn Ortwin;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Stavanger Risk Management, N-4036 Stavanger, Norway;

    Univ Stuttgart, D-70174 Stuttgart, Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Climate change; risk; uncertainty;

    机译：气候变化;风险;不确定性;

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