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Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

机译：变革性风险评估实践和解释的难以捉摸的关键要素：下一步是否进行替代分析？

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This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although new chemical safety regulations do transform access to risk information, they do not transform the costs of producing this information-rather, they change the bearer of these costs. The need for further risk assessment transformation continues to motivate new practical and theoretical developments in risk analysis and management.
机译：本文认为，风险分析的“改变游戏规则”的方法必须侧重于“民主化”风险分析，就像信息技术使知识的获取和生产民主化一样。该论点是由作者对Goble和Bier的分析“动机评估可以成为改变游戏规则的信息技术，但并非经常如此”的动机所激发的（Risk Analysis，2013； 33：1942-1951）。在概率风险分析中，风险评估显示为“改变游戏规则”。在作者看来，Goble和Bier的文章着眼于从风险专业人员的角度出发，进行生活风险评估改变风险分析的潜力，然而，信息技术改变游戏规则的性质通常已经取得了更广泛的影响。具体来说，信息技术改变了谁可以访问和可以产生信息。从这个角度来看，作者认为，风险评估不是与印刷机或Internet一样的改变游戏规则的技术，因为变革性的信息技术降低了特权知识库的生产和访问成本。作者认为，风险分析并不能降低这些成本。作者将Goble和Bier的隐喻应用于化学风险分析环境，并由此提出了变革性风险分析技术应具备的关键功能。作者还讨论了在这种情况下风险分析面临的挑战和机遇。这些关键特征包括：信息结构和问题表示的清晰度，经济信息的传播，对非专家的透明度增加，知识的制造和传播民主化，知识的民主所有权，控制权和解释权。化学安全决策环境说明了在风险环境中更改信息产生和访问方式的影响。归根结底，作者得出的结论是，尽管新的化学安全法规确实改变了对风险信息的访问，但它们并没有改变产生该信息的成本，而是改变了这些成本的承担者。进一步进行风险评估转换的需求继续激励着风险分析和管理领域的新的实践和理论发展。

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