On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk

Aven Terje; Guikema Seth

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On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk

机译：恐怖主义风险的概念和定义

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In this article, we provide some reflections on how to define and understand the concept of terrorism risk in a professional risk assessment context. As a basis for this discussion we introduce a set of criteria that we believe should apply to any conceptualization of terrorism risk. These criteria are based on both criteria used in other areas of risk analysis and our experience with terrorism risk analysis. That is, these criteria offer our perspective. We show that several of the suggested perspectives and definitions have weaknesses in relation to these criteria. A main problem identified is the idea that terrorism risk can be conceptualized as a function of probability and consequence, not as a function of the interactions between adaptive individuals and organizations. We argue that perspectives based solely on probability and consequence should be used cautiously or not at all because they fail to reflect the essential features of the concept of terrorism risk, the threats and attacks, their consequences, and the uncertainties, all in the context of adaptation by the adversaries. These three elements should in our view constitute the main pillars of the terrorism risk concept. From this concept we can develop methods for assessing the risk by identifying a set of threats, attacks, and consequence measures associated with the possible outcome scenarios together with a description of the uncertainties and interactions between the adversaries.

机译：在本文中，我们对如何在专业风险评估的背景下定义和理解恐怖主义风险的概念提供了一些思考。作为讨论的基础，我们介绍了一套我们认为应适用于任何恐怖主义风险概念的标准。这些标准是基于在其他风险分析领域中使用的标准以及我们在恐怖主义风险分析方面的经验。也就是说，这些标准提供了我们的观点。我们表明，一些建议的观点和定义相对于这些标准存在弱点。确定的一个主要问题是，可以将恐怖主义风险概念化为概率和后果的函数，而不是适应性个人与组织之间的相互作用的函数。我们认为，仅基于概率和后果的观点应谨慎使用或根本不使用，因为它们无法反映恐怖主义风险，威胁和攻击，其后果和不确定性等概念的基本特征，而所有这些都是在这种情况下进行的。对手的适应。我们认为，这三个要素应构成恐怖主义风险概念的主要支柱。通过此概念，我们可以通过识别与可能的结果场景相关的一组威胁，攻击和后果度量，以及对对手之间不确定性和相互作用的描述，来开发评估风险的方法。

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来源
《Risk analysis》 |2015年第12期|2162-2171|共10页
作者
Aven Terje; Guikema Seth;
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作者单位

Univ Stavanger, Risk Management, Stavanger, Norway;

Univ Michigan, Dept Ind & Operat Engn, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Concept; definition; terrorism risk;

机译：概念;定义;恐怖主义风险;

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On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk

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