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Classic Dose-Response and Time Postinoculation Models for Leptospira

机译：钩端螺旋体的经典剂量反应和时间后接种模型

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摘要

Leptospirosis is a preeminent zoonotic disease concentrated in tropical areas, and prevalent in both industrialized and rural settings. Dose-response models were generated from 22 data sets reported in 10 different studies. All of the selected studies Used rodent subjects, primarily hamsters, with the predominant endpoint as mortality with the challenge strain administered intraperitoneally. Dose-response models based on a single evaluation postinfection displayed median lethal dose (LD_(50)) estimates that ranged between 1 and 10~7 lepiospirae depending upon the strain's virulence and the period elapsed since the initial exposure inoculation. Twelve of the 22 data sets measured the number of affected subjects daily over an extended period, so dose-response models with time-dependent parameters were estimated. Pooling between data sets produced seven common dose-response models and one time-dependent model. These pooled common models had data sets with different test subject hosts, and between disparate leptospiral strains tested on identical hosts. Comparative modeling was done with parallel tests to test the effects of a single different variable of either strain or test host and quantify the difference by calculating a dose multiplication factor. Statistical pooling implies that the mechanistic processes of leptospirosis can be represented by the same dose-response model for different experimental infection tests even though they may involve different host species, routes, and leptospiral strains, although the cause of this pathophysiological phenomenon has not yet been identified.
机译：钩端螺旋体病是一种主要的人畜共患病，集中在热带地区，在工业化和农村地区都普遍存在。剂量反应模型是从10个不同研究中报告的22个数据集中生成的。所有选定的研究均以啮齿动物为对象，主要是仓鼠，其主要终点是腹膜内给予攻击菌株的死亡率。基于单一感染后评估的剂量反应模型显示，致死剂量中位数（LD_（50））估计范围在1到10〜7个钩端螺旋体之间，具体取决于菌株的毒力和自初次接触接种以来经过的时间。 22个数据集中的12个数据集每天测量一个较长时期内受影响受试者的数量，因此估计了具有时间依赖性参数的剂量反应模型。数据集之间的合并产生了七个常见的剂量反应模型和一个时间依赖性模型。这些合并的通用模型具有不同测试对象宿主以及在相同宿主上测试的不同钩端螺旋体菌株之间的数据集。使用并行测试进行比较建模，以测试菌株或测试宿主的单个不同变量的影响，并通过计算剂量倍增因子来量化差异。统计汇总表明，尽管可能涉及不同的宿主物种，途径和钩端螺旋体菌株，但对于不同的实验感染测试，钩端螺旋体病的机制过程仍可以由相同的剂量反应模型来表示，尽管尚未发现这种病理生理现象的原因。确定。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2014年第3期|465-484|共20页
  • 作者

    Toru Watanabe; Sondra S. Teske; Charles N. Haas;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Food,Life and Environmental Sciences,Yamagata University,Tsuruoka,Yamagata,Japan;

    Department of Civil,Arch,and Environmental Engineering,Drexel University,251 Curtis Hall,3141 Chestnut Street,Philadelphia,PA 19104,USA;

    Department of Civil,Arch,and Environmental Engineering,Drexel University,251 Curtis Hall,3141 Chestnut Street,Philadelphia,PA 19104,USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Dose-response model; leptospirosis; microbial risk assessment;

    机译：剂量反应模型;钩端螺旋体病微生物风险评估;

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