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A Framework for Estimating the Adverse Health Effects of Contamination Events in Water Distribution Systems and its Application

机译：估计供水系统中污染事件对健康的不利影响的框架及其应用

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摘要

Intentional or accidental releases of contaminants into a water distribution system (WDS) have the potential to cause significant adverse health effects among individuals consuming water from the system. A flexible analysis framework is presented here for estimating the magnitude of such potential effects and is applied using network models for 12 actual WDSs of varying sizes. Upper bounds are developed for the magnitude of adverse effects of contamination events in WDSs and evaluated using results from the 12 systems. These bounds can be applied in cases in which little system-specific information is available. The combination of a detailed, network-specific approach and a bounding approach allows consequence assessments to be performed for systems for which varying amounts of information are available and addresses important needs of individual utilities as well as regional or national assessments. The approach used in the analysis framework allows contaminant injections at any or all network nodes and uses models that (1) account for contaminant transport in the systems, including contaminant decay, and (2) provide estimates of ingested contaminant doses for the exposed population. The approach can be easily modified as better transport or exposure models become available. The methods presented here provide the ability to quantify or bound potential adverse effects of contamination events for a wide variety of possible contaminants and WDSs, including systems without a network model.
机译：污染物有意或无意地释放到水分配系统（WDS）中，有可能对从系统中消耗水的个人造成严重的不利健康影响。此处提供了一个灵活的分析框架，用于估计此类潜在影响的严重程度，并使用网络模型将其应用于12个不同大小的实际WDS。针对WDS中污染事件的不利影响的大小制定了上限，并使用12个系统的结果进行了评估。这些界限可以应用在几乎没有特定于系统的信息的情况下。详细的，特定于网络的方法和边界方法的结合，可以对可获得各种信息的系统进行结果评估，并满足各个公用事业的重要需求以及区域或国家评估。分析框架中使用的方法允许在任何或所有网络节点处注入污染物，并使用以下模型：（1）考虑系统中的污染物迁移，包括污染物衰减，（2）提供暴露人群的摄入污染物剂量估计值。由于可以使用更好的运输或暴露模型，因此可以轻松修改此方法。此处介绍的方法提供了针对各种可能的污染物和WDS（包括没有网络模型的系统）量化或限制污染物事件的潜在不利影响的能力。

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