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The Economic Efficiency of Sampling Size: The Case of Beef Trim Revisited

机译：抽样规模的经济效率：以牛肉切块为例

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摘要

A recent paper by Ferrier and Buzby provides a framework for selecting the sample size when testing a lot of beef trim for Escherichia coli O157:H7 that equates the averted costs of recalls and health damages from contaminated meats sold to consumers with the increased costs of testing while allowing for uncertainty about the underlying prevalence of contamination. Ferrier and Buzby conclude that the optimal sample size is larger than the current sample size. However, Ferrier and Buzby's optimization model has a number of errors, and their simulations failed to consider available evidence about the likelihood of the scenarios explored under the model. After correctly modeling microbial prevalence as dependent on portion size and selecting model inputs based on available evidence, the model suggests that the optimal sample size is zero under most plausible scenarios. It does not follow, however, that sampling beef trim for E. coli O157:H7, or food safety sampling more generally, should be abandoned. Sampling is not generally cost effective as a direct consumer safety control measure due to the extremely large sample sizes required to provide a high degree of confidence of detecting very low acceptable defect levels. Food safety verification sampling creates economic incentives for food producing firms to develop, implement, and maintain effective control measures that limit the probability and degree of noncompliance with regulatory limits or private contract specifications.
机译：Ferrier和Buzby最近发表的一篇论文提供了一个框架，用于在测试大量O0.15：H7大肠杆菌的牛肉条时选择样本量，这等于将回售成本和出售给消费者的受污染肉类所造成的健康损害与增加的测试成本等同起来同时考虑到潜在的污染发生率的不确定性。 Ferrier和Buzby得出结论，最佳样本数量大于当前样本数量。但是，Ferrier和Buzby的优化模型存在许多错误，并且他们的模拟未能考虑有关在该模型下探索情景可能性的可用证据。在将微生物患病率正确建模为取决于份量并根据可用证据选择模型输入后，该模型表明，在最合理的情况下，最佳样本量为零。但是，并不能因此而放弃对O157：H7大肠杆菌的牛肉条取样，或更普遍的食品安全取样。由于需要非常大的样本量才能提供很高的置信度来检测非常低的可接受缺陷水平，因此作为直接的消费者安全控制措施，采样通常不具有成本效益。食品安全验证抽样为食品生产企业制定，实施和维持有效的控制措施提供了经济诱因，这些措施限制了不符合监管限制或私人合同规定的可能性和程度。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第3期|385-396|共12页
  • 作者

    Mark R. Powell;

  • 作者单位

    United States Department of Agriculture, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis, 1400 Independence Ave.,SW (MS 3811), Washington, DC 20250, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Beef; E. coli O157:H7; food safety; sampling;

    机译：牛肉;大肠杆菌O157：H7;食品安全;采样;

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