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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot-and-Mouth Disease Case
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Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot-and-Mouth Disease Case

机译：灾难性生产事件的动态影响：手足口病案例

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摘要

In foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.
机译：在无口蹄疫的国家，口蹄疫暴发是罕见的事件，可能造成巨大的经济损失。考虑到在很大程度上被忽视的农场破产问题，我们探讨了口蹄疫爆发对市场变量和经济顺差的动态影响。对程式化的农业经济进行模拟，农业经济是疫情爆发前的净出口国。当农业信贷市场遭受导致农场关闭的信息缺陷时，我们发现复杂的动态市场效应。福利影响也发生了巨大变化。从长远来看，由于国内供应合同，国内消费者可能会因口蹄疫爆发而蒙受损失。另一方面，能够抵抗这一事件的农民最终可能会收获。我们的分析还表明，这些影响不是单调的，因此对这一灾难性事件采取任何有效的政策应对措施都极具挑战性。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第3期|480-492|共13页
  • 作者

    Alexandre Gohin; Jean Cordier; Stephane Krebs; Arnaud Rault;

  • 作者单位

    NRA, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes, France AGRO-CAMPUS OUEST, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes,France;

    NRA, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes, France AGRO-CAMPUS OUEST, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes,France;

    INRA, UMR1300 Biology, Epidemiology and Risk Analysis in Animal Health, BP 40706, F-44307 Nantes, France LU-NAM Universite, Oniris, Nantes-Atlantic College of Veterinary Medicine and Food Sciences and Engineering, UMR BioEpAR,F-44307 Nantes, France;

    NRA, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes, France AGRO-CAMPUS OUEST, UMR1302 SMART, F-35000 Rennes,France;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    animal disease; catastrophic risks; credit markets;

    机译：动物疾病灾难性风险;信贷市场;

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