• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Low-Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City
【24h】

Low-Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City

机译：纽约市的低概率洪水风险建模

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.
机译：桑迪飓风（2012）造成的破坏性影响再次表明，纽约市（New York City）是全球沿海洪灾最脆弱的城市之一。纽约市的低洼地区可能会被零食风暴和北大西洋飓风淹没。为数不多的估计纽约市潜在洪灾损失的研究仅基于一个或几个可能的洪灾事件来估计其洪灾损失。这项研究的目的是评估纽约市飓风洪水风险的全部分布。通过使用洪灾破坏模型计算潜在的洪灾破坏来完成，该模型使用许多可能的风暴和浪涌高度作为输入。这些风暴代表了该城市面临的低概率/高影响洪水灾害。超出概率损失曲线是在关于洪水破坏严重性的不同假设下构建的。纽约市建筑物的洪灾损失估计在每年59到1.29亿美元之间。 1/100年风暴潮造成的损失在20亿至50亿美元之间，而1/500年风暴潮造成的损失在50亿美元至110亿美元之间。对纽约市五个行政区中每个行政区的洪水风险进行的分析发现，布鲁克林和皇后区最容易遭受洪水袭击。这项研究检查了风险分析各个步骤中的一些不确定性，这些不确定性导致了洪灾损失估算的变化。这些不确定性包括：洪水深度的插值；使用不同的洪水破坏曲线；以及模拟飓风特征光谱的影响。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第5期|772-788|共17页
  • 作者

    Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts; Ning Lin; W. J. Wouter Botzen; Kerry Emanuel; Hans de Moel;

  • 作者单位

    Iinstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

    The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA;

    Iinstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA,USA;

    Iinstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    catastrophe model; flood risk; hurricane; new york city; uncertainty;

    机译：突变模型洪水风险;飓风;纽约市;不确定;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号