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Response to 'The Necessity for Longitudinal Studies in Risk Perception Research'

机译：对“风险感知研究中进行纵向研究的必要性”的回应

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Cross-sectional surveys have been the predominant method in risk perception and communica tion research(1) and in studies that examine fac tors of influence on individual preparedness for disasters.(2) Using a hypothetical example, Siegrist(3) demonstrates in his recent commentary why a cross-sectional survey design can produce misleading re sults, and consequently may lead to inappropriate recommendations. The shortcomings of currently available cross-sectional studies are caused by a pos sible feedback between already-adopted mitigation behavior on risk perceptions. For instance, although high risk perceptions of individuals (at point in time t) may cause them to implement risk mitigation measures, these risk perceptions may decrease after the mitigation measures have been implemented and the individual is better protected against the risk (at point in time t_2). This would be reflected by a weak or negative relation between perceived risk and disaster preparedness if a cross-sectional survey is conducted after the mitigation measures are put in place (at t_2 or later). In such cases, a cross-sectional survey is un able to detect causal relationships between variables. Siegrist(3) illustrates this in an example in which vic tims of a flood who were unprepared for the flood disaster had higher flood risk perceptions compared with prepared individuals, which results in a negative association between flood risk perceptions and mit igation behavior in a cross-sectional survey after a flood event. As a solution to this problem, Siegrist(3) proposes longitudinal studies for risk perception re search to arrive at better insights into how impor tant risk perceptions really are in individual decisions about the implementation of mitigation measures. We agree that more longitudinal studies are in deed needed and could make an important contribu tion to the growing literature on individual behavior with respect to natural hazards. However, also lon gitudinal studies have their drawbacks.
机译：横断面调查一直是风险感知和交流研究的主要方法（1），并且在研究影响个人备灾的因素的研究中也占主导地位。（2）Siegrist（3）使用一个假设的例子证明了他的最新观点。说明为什么横断面调查设计会产生误导性的结果，从而可能导致提出不合适的建议。当前可用的横断面研究的缺点是由于已经采用的缓解行为之间关于风险感知的可能反馈引起的。例如，尽管对个人的高风险感知（在时间点t）可能导致他们实施风险缓解措施，但是在实施缓解措施并且更好地保护个人免受风险影响后，这些风险感知可能会降低。时间t_2）。如果在采取缓解措施之后（在t_2或更晚时间）进行了横断面调查，这将由感知到的风险与灾难准备之间的弱关系或负面关系反映出来。在这种情况下，横截面调查无法检测变量之间的因果关系。 Siegrist（3）在一个例子中对此进行了说明，在该例子中，与洪水灾民相比，没有做好洪灾准备的受害者对洪水风险的感知程度高于有准备的个人，这导致洪水风险感知与十字架上的缓解行为之间存在负相关关系。洪水事件后进行分段调查。为了解决这个问题，Siegrist（3）提出了对风险感知研究的纵向研究，以便更好地了解重要的风险感知在实施缓解措施的各个决策中的真实情况。我们同意，确实需要进行更多的纵向研究，并且可以为有关自然灾害的个人行为的日益增长的文献做出重要贡献。然而，长期的人际关系研究也有其缺点。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第5期|760-762|共3页
  • 作者

    Philip Bubeck; J. Wouter Botzen;

  • 作者单位

    German Research Centre for Geosciences, (GFZ) Section Hydrology, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;

    VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam 1081HV, Netherlands;

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