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1. Fundamental Questions This issue begins with two articles that address questions of fundamental importance for applied risk analysis. Charles Vlek asks: How can governments best evaluate major hazards and threats in their countries to support fair, efficient, and effective priorities for limited safety investments? After scrutinizing the soundness of national risk assessments (NRAs) based on scenarios, expert judgments, risk matrices and rankings, and related concepts and tools, he recommends better external review and better validation of NRA components to strengthen the reliability of results. USDA's Mark Powell examines the vexed question: What should be considered "negligible" probability? In the applied context of World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Panel deliberations, can negligible probability be represented adequately by a uniform distribution between 0 and some small number (e.g., 1 in a million), or should triangular (or other) uncertainty distributions be required? Powell shows that the choice makes little practical difference in a dispute over an Australian Import Risk Analysis for apples imported from New Zealand, and reflects on the potential implications of this case study for the standard of review for risk assessments under the WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement.

机译：1.基本问题本期以两篇文章开头，这些文章讨论了对应用风险分析至关重要的问题。查尔斯·弗莱克（Charles Vlek）问：政府如何才能最好地评估本国的主要危害和威胁，以支持有限安全投资的公平，高效和有效的优先事项？在根据情景，专家判断，风险矩阵和等级以及相关概念和工具仔细检查了国家风险评估（NRA）的合理性之后，他建议进行更好的外部审查和对NRA组件的更好验证，以增强结果的可靠性。美国农业部的马克·鲍威尔（Mark Powell）研究了一个令人烦恼的问题：什么应该被认为是“微不足道的”概率？在世界贸易组织（WTO）争端解决小组的讨论中，可以用0和少量（例如，百万分之一）之间的均匀分布来充分表示可忽略的概率，或者应采用三角形（或其他）不确定性分布需要？鲍威尔（Powell）表示，在澳大利亚对从新西兰进口的苹果进行的澳大利亚进口风险分析的争议中，这一选择几乎没有什么实际意义，并且反映了该案例研究对WTO卫生与植物检疫（风险评估）审查标准的潜在影响（ SPS）协议。

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《Risk analysis》 |2013年第6期|945-947|共3页
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7. Thank you to Associate Editors, Editorial Board Members, Ad hoc Associate Editors, Guest Editors, and Reviewers 2020 [O] . 2021

机译：感谢您将编辑委员会成员，ad hoc助理编辑，访客编辑和审稿人联系起来

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