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How to Model a Negligible Probability Under the WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement?

机译：如何根据WTO卫生与植物检疫协定对可忽略的概率建模？

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摘要

Since the 1997 EC - Hormones decision, World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Panels have wrestled with the question of what constitutes a negligible risk under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. More recently, the 2010 WTO Australia - Apples Panel focused considerable attention on the appropriate quantitative model for a negligible probability in a risk assessment. The 2006 Australian Import Risk Analysis for Apples from New Zealand translated narrative probability statements into quantitative ranges. The uncertainty about a "negligible" probability was characterized as a uniform distribution with a minimum value of zero and a maximum value of 10~6. The Australia - Apples Panel found that the use of this distribution would tend to overestimate the likelihood of "negligible" events and indicated that a triangular distribution with a most probable value of zero and a maximum value of 10~6 would correct the bias. The Panel observed that the midpoint of the uniform distribution is 5 x 10~(-7) but did not consider that the triangular distribution has an expected value of 3.3 x 10~(-7). Therefore, if this triangular distribution is the appropriate correction, the magnitude of the bias found by the Panel appears modest. The Panel's detailed critique of the Australian risk assessment, and the conclusions of the WTO Appellate Body about the materiality of flaws found by the Panel, may have important implications for the standard of review for risk assessments under the WTO SPS Agreement.
机译：自1997年EC-激素决定以来，世界贸易组织（WTO）争端解决小组就《卫生与植物检疫协定》中什么构成可忽略的风险进行了角力。最近，2010年澳大利亚世贸组织-苹果小组将注意力集中在适当的定量模型上，以使风险评估中的概率可忽略不计。 2006年澳大利亚对新西兰苹果的进口风险分析将叙述性概率陈述转化为定量范围。关于“可忽略”概率的不确定性的特征是均匀分布，最小值为零，最大值为10〜6。澳大利亚－苹果小组发现，使用这种分布可能会高估“可忽略”事件的可能性，并指出最可能值为零且最大值为10〜6的三角形分布将纠正偏差。小组认为，均匀分布的中点为5 x 10〜（-7），但没有认为三角形分布的预期值为3.3 x 10〜（-7）。因此，如果该三角形分布是适当的校正，则面板发现的偏差的大小显得适中。专家组对澳大利亚风险评估的详细批评以及世贸组织上诉机构对专家组发现的缺陷的实质性结论，可能会对《 WTO SPS协议》风险评估的审查标准产生重要影响。

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