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Uncertainty Analysis in Fault Tree Models with Dependent Basic Events

机译：具有相关基本事件的故障树模型中的不确定性分析

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摘要

In general, two types of dependence need to be considered when estimating the probability of the top event (TE) of a fault tree (FT): "objective" dependence between the (random) occurrences of different basic events (BEs) in the FT and "state-of-knowledge" (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs of the FT model. In this article, we study the effects on the TE probability of objective and epistemic dependences. The well-known Frechet bounds and the distribution envelope determination (DEnv) method are used to model all kinds of (possibly unknown) objective and epistemic dependences, respectively. For exemplification, the analyses are carried out on a FT with six BEs. Results show that both types of dependence significantly affect the TE probability; however, the effects of epistemic dependence are likely to be overwhelmed by those of objective dependence (if present).
机译：通常，在估计故障树（FT）的最高事件（TE）的概率时，需要考虑两种类型的依赖性：FT中不同基本事件（BE）的（随机）出现之间的“客观”依赖性FT模型的某些BE的认识上不确定概率的估计之间的“知识状态”（认识论）依赖性。在本文中，我们研究了客观和认知依赖对TE概率的影响。众所周知的Frechet边界和分布包络确定（DEnv）方法分别用于对各种（可能是未知的）客观和认知依赖进行建模。为了举例，在具有六个BE的FT上进行分析。结果表明，两种依赖性都显着影响TE概率；但是，认识依赖的影响可能会被客观依赖的影响（如果存在）所抵消。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第6期|1146-1173|共28页
  • 作者

    Nicola Pedroni; Enrico Zio;

  • 作者单位

    Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio, 34/3 -20133 Milano, Italy;

    Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio, 34/3 -20133 Milano, Italy,Chair of system science and the energetic challenge, Electricite de France-Ecole Centrale de Paris and Supelec, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295, Chatenay Malabry-Cedex, France,Address correspondence to Enrico Zio, Electricite de France-Ecole Centrale de Paris and Supelec, Grande Voie des Vignes,92295, Chatenay Malabry-Cedex, France;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Epistemically uncertain probabilities; fault tree; objective and epistemic dependences;

    机译：认识上不确定的概率;故障树客观和认识依赖;

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