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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >A Decision Support Tool to Compare Waterborne and Foodborne Infection and/or Illness Risks Associated with Climate Change
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A Decision Support Tool to Compare Waterborne and Foodborne Infection and/or Illness Risks Associated with Climate Change

机译：一种决策支持工具，用于比较与气候变化相关的水源和食源性感染和/或疾病风险

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摘要

Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate-change-associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location-specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen-pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, Campy-lobacter, Cryptosporidium, and noncholera Vibrio species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with Campylobacter from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for Vibrio from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and Cryptosporidium, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like Campylobacter. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases.
机译：气候变化可能会影响水传播和食源性传染病，但在多大程度上尚不确定。估计暴露于水或食物中的病毒，细菌或寄生虫的与气候变化相关的相对感染风险对于指导适应措施至关重要。我们提供了一种用于战略决策的计算工具，该工具使用特定位置的输入数据在当前和预计的气候条件下描述病原体的行为。病原体-途径组合可通过饮用水，沐浴水，牡蛎或鸡柳暴露于诺如病毒，弯曲杆菌，隐孢子虫和非霍乱弧菌。该工具在当前气候条件下产生的感染风险结果与文献中公布的结果一致。该工具表明，温度升高会导致食用生的/未煮熟的鸡柳引起弯曲杆菌感染的风险增加，以及因接触水而引起弧菌感染的风险增加。干旱频率的升高通常会导致感染持久性病原体（如诺如病毒和隐孢子虫）的感染风险增加，但降低暴露于快速灭活的病原体（如弯曲杆菌）的风险。年降水量增加则相反。在所有情况下，暴雨事件的激增导致感染风险的峰值更高。此处介绍的跨学科工具可用于指导针对传染病的气候变化适应策略。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第12期|2154-2167|共14页
  • 作者

    Jack Schijven; Martijn Bouwknegt; Ana Maria de Roda Husman; Saskia Rutjes; Bertrand Sudre; Jonathan E. Suk; Jan C. Semenza;

  • 作者单位

    National Institute of Public Health and the Environment P.O.Box 1,3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands;

    National Institute of Public Health and the Environment P.O.Box 1,3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands;

    National Institute of Public Health and the Environment P.O.Box 1,3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands;

    National Institute of Public Health and the Environment P.O.Box 1,3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands;

    European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden;

    European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden;

    Head of Health Determinants Programme, Office of the Chief Scientist,European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),Tomtebodaevagen 11 A, Stockholm, Sweden;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Climate change; epidemiology; food and waterborne diseases; quantitative microbial risk assessment;

    机译：气候变化;流行病学食物和水传播疾病;定量微生物风险评估;

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