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Flu, Risks, and Videotape: Escalating Fear and Avoidance

机译：流感，风险和录像带：恐惧和逃避的加剧

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摘要

While extensive risk perception research has focused on emotions, cognitions, and behavior at static points in time, less attention has been paid to how these variables might change over time. This study assesses how negative affect, threat beliefs, perceived risk, and intended avoidance behavior change over the course of an escalating biological disaster. A scenario simulation methodology was used that presents respondents with a video simulation of a 15-day series of local news reports to immerse respondents in the developing details of the disaster. Systemic manipulation of the virus's causal origin (terrorist attack, medical lab accident, unknown) and the respondent's proximity to the virus (local vs. opposite coast) allowed us to investigate the dynamics of public response. The unfolding scenario was presented in discrete episodes, allowing responses to be tracked over the episodes. The sample includes 600 respondents equally split by sex and by location, with half in the Washington, DC area, and half in the Los Angeles area. The results showed respondents' reactions to the flu epidemic increased as the disaster escalated. More importantly, there was considerable consistency across respondents' emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the epidemic over the episodes. In addition, the reactions of respondents proximally closer to the epidemic increased more rapidly and with greater intensity than their distant counterparts. Finally, as the flu epidemic escalated, both terrorist and accidental flu releases were perceived as being less risky and were less likely to lead to avoidance behavior compared to the unknown flu release.
机译：尽管广泛的风险感知研究集中在静态时间点的情绪，认知和行为，但人们对这些变量如何随时间变化的关注较少。这项研究评估了在不断升级的生物灾难过程中负面影响，威胁信念，感知到的风险以及规避行为的变化。使用了一种情景模拟方法，该方法为受访者提供了一个为期15天的本地新闻报道系列的视频模拟，以使受访者沉浸在灾难不断发展的细节中。系统地操纵病毒的原因（恐怖袭击，医学实验室事故，未知）以及受访者与病毒的接近程度（本地与对岸），使我们能够调查公众响应的动态。展开的场景以离散的情节呈现，从而可以在情节中跟踪响应。该样本包括600名按性别和地区划分的受访者，其中一半在华盛顿特区，另一半在洛杉矶地区。结果表明，随着灾难的升级，受访者对流感疫情的反应有所增加。更重要的是，在整个发作期间，受访者对流行病的情绪，认知和行为反应具有相当的一致性。此外，与遥远的流行病相比，更接近流行病的被访者的反应更快，强度更大。最后，随着流感流行的加剧，与未知的流感相比，恐怖和意外流感的释放都被认为风险较低，导致回避行为的可能性较小。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2012年第4期|p.729-743|共15页
  • 作者

    Heather Rosoff; Richard S. John; Fynnwin Prager;

  • 作者单位

    University of Southern California, National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, 3710 McClintock, RTH 322, Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902, USA;

    Department of Psychology, Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA;

    Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    flu epidemic; risk perception; scenario simulation; terrorism;

    机译：流感流行;风险感知;场景模拟;恐怖主义;

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