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Public Perceptions of Hurricane Modification

机译：公众对飓风修改的看法

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摘要

If hurricane modification were to become a feasible strategy for potentially reducing hurricane damages, it would likely generate public discourse about whether to support its implementation. To facilitate an informed and constructive discourse, policymakers need to understand how people perceive hurricane modification. Here, we examine Florida residents' perceptions of hurricane modification techniques that aim to alter path and wind speed. Following the mental models approach, we conducted a survey study about public perceptions of hurricane modification that was guided by formative interviews on the topic. We report a set of four primary findings. First, hurricane modification was perceived as a relatively ineffective strategy for damage reduction, compared to other strategies for damage reduction. Second, hurricane modification was expected to lead to changes in projected hurricane path, but not necessarily to the successful reduction of projected hurricane strength. Third, more anger was evoked when a hurricane was described as having changed from the initially forecasted path or strength after an attempted modification. Fourth, unlike what we expected, participants who more strongly agreed with statements that recognized the uncertainty inherent in forecasts reported more rather than less anger at scientists across hurricane modification scenarios. If the efficacy of intensity-reduction techniques can be increased, people may be willing to support hurricane modification. However, such an effort would need to be combined with open and honest communications to members of the general public.
机译：如果修改飓风成为可能减少飓风损害的可行策略，则很可能引起公众对是否支持其实施的讨论。为了促进有见地和建设性的讨论，决策者需要了解人们如何看待飓风的改变。在这里，我们研究了佛罗里达州居民对旨在改变路径和风速的飓风改造技术的看法。遵循心理模型方法，我们对公众对飓风变质的看法进行了一项调查研究，该调查由有关该主题的形成性访谈指导。我们报告了一组四个主要发现。首先，与其他减少伤害的策略相比，飓风修改被认为是减少伤害的相对无效的策略。第二，飓风的改变预计会导致飓风预测路径发生变化，但不一定会成功降低飓风预测强度。第三，当飓风被描述为试图改变后从最初预测的路径或强度发生变化时，会引起更多的愤怒。第四，与我们的预期不同，与会人员更加一致地同意承认预报固有的不确定性的陈述，他们报告说在飓风修正方案中科学家对他们的愤怒更多而不是更少。如果降低强度技术的功效可以提高，人们可能会愿意支持飓风的改造。但是，这样的努力需要与向公众公开和诚实的沟通相结合。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2012年第7期|p.1194-1206|共13页
  • 作者

    Kelly Klima; Wandi Bruine de Bruin; M. Granger Morgan; Iris Grossmann;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University,Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburg, PA 15213, USA;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University,Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    forecast uncertainty; hurricane modification; public perception;

    机译：预测不确定性;飓风修改;公众认知;

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